Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MARSHALL AND DAY
COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER
WEST. FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SVR WATCH 507 HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND COVERS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EAST INTO
MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STILL FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE
80S AND 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXCEPT WHILE SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING.
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
WILL WORK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT SWITCH IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHWESTERLY POST
FRONTAL...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING GENERALLY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS POST FRONTAL.

HAD A BRIEF WEAK RAIN SHOWER PASS OVER KPIR A LITTLE BIT AGO.
SEEING A FEW MORE ECHOES DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST OF KPIR RIGHT
NOW...AND MAY HAVE TO REINTRODUCE A TEMPO PERIOD OF TS THERE FOR
ANOTHER OUR OR TWO.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING RIGHT NOW AT KMBG AND
LOOK TO CONTINUE THERE UNTIL APPX 19Z...BEFORE THE KMBG TAF CLEARS
OUT.

FURTHER EAST...THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...TIMED TO
REACH KABR BY APPX 21Z...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT KATY. BY THE TIME STORMS ARE GETTING INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WX THREAT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-010900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013 /259 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. STORMS WILL PROCEED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             5 N ROSLYN              45.57N  97.49W
08/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       DAY                SD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROSLYN FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON
            HWY 25 NORTH OF ROSLYN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300755

TROGDON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             3 NNE NEW EFFINGTON     45.90N  96.90W
08/31/2013  E1.75 INCH       ROBERTS            SD   PUBLIC

            RESIDENT REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AS THE STORM
            MOVED THROUGH

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300756

TROGDON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             ROSHOLT                 45.87N  96.73W
08/31/2013  E0.88 INCH       ROBERTS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL ONGOING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300757

TROGDON

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