Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 230PM SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS SHIFTED WEST
INTO THIS AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
COMPLEXES OF STORMS IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY BECOME A LARGER COMPLEX
OVER THE SE PLAINS INTO WEST TX BY THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE HPC QPF AND SPC ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. FARTHER WEST
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST A POSSIBILITY AGAIN.

TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR WITH AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN NM. THE CONVECTION FROM TODAY WILL FORCE THE
BACK DOOR/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT THRU GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME GUSTY CANYON WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SCOURED OUT QUICKLY IN CENTRAL NM AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DRY LINE THUS ENHANCING
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEST
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY LATE DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS WILL RETURN.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT AS 700MB READINGS REACH THE +17 TO 19C RANGE
WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALMOST ALL AREAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL GUSTY WITH DRY
LIGHTNING AND BLOWING DUST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TX
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A WELL
DEFINED MOIST AXIS WILL READY TO TAP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES INTO NM. DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED POPS BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BETTER
COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN...STORMS WILL FAVOR MORE
OF THE DRY AND GUSTY MODE. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND SOME ON THURSDAY...

AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...DRIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF
WETTING RAIN CENTRAL. THE EASTERN HALF WILL SEE WETTER STORMS AS THE
MODELS PAINT A COMPLEX OF WETTING STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO TONIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SERVE AS
THE CATALYST FOR THE WETTER STORMS AND BASED ON THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION...EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUS...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE WEST. ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE GAPS.

THE OVERALL WIND FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. MIXING WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A COOL POOL LIMITS THE MIXING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST. CONTINUED STORMINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST AND MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. MOST LIKELY DRIER OVER THE SANGRES BUT JUST DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REALLY INCREASE  ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD TO HALF AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION INTENSIFIES. HAINES
VALUES WILL BE 6 ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF WITH MUCH LOWER
READINGS ACROSS THE EAST. SEEING SOME SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS AS WELL AS A LOCALIZED RED FLAG SIGNATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER SAN JUANS OR TUSAS MTNS OF ZONE 102. SMALL ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR THAT AREA.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND PUSH INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH
NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH PERIOD WOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOST LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE
INTENSIFICATION...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL
ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ABOVE
MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE ITS MID JUNE WITH A STEEP SUN ANGLE AND MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL ALSO TEND TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA EXCLUDING THE FAR EAST
SO SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE POOR WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY
MORNING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY MORNING
RECOVERIES WILL BE MOISTURE PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST VIA THE CENTRAL
MTN GAPS DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OR ELSE...CONDITIONS
WOULD BE WORSE DURING THAT OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.

THE MAJOR THREATS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COMBO SUPER HAINES AND RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A SIGNATURE TO WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 109 AND 106 WITH WIND SPEEDS MORE OF
A LIMITER BUT SUPER HAINES BEING PRETTY EXPANSIVE. ZONES 104 AND 108 ARE
ALSO LIMITED DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VIA THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX
STATE LINE. THE STRONGEST CRITICAL SIGNATURE LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF.

THE CRITICAL AREA SHRINKS ON THURSDAY BUT STILL CRITICAL OVER THE
HIGHEST RIDGES AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. NOT
GOING TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE WATCHING MODEL
TRENDS AS FAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WIND SPEEDS PROJECTED FOR
THE SURFACE. SORT OF MARGINAL AS IT CONCERNS SPEEDS BUT STILL
CRITICAL DUE TO THE WARMTH/DRYNESS AND INSTABILITY. LESS OF A SUPER
HAINES SIGNATURE FOR THURSDAY BUT HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
RAMPANT. CANT RULE OUT SOME FASTER MOVING HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AND MAKE FOR WETTER STORMS.

HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST AND THE MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EAST. WIND FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOWER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.
SUSPECT THIS WILL CHANGE SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY. SIMILAR
PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS MORE
TROUGH EFFECTS THAN ECWMF BUT EXPECTING DRIER STORMS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TO NE STORM MOVEMENT.
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE. 50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MICROBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER CONVECTION SUCH AS SH/TS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. POSSIBLE
IMPACTS TO SAF...ABQ AND ROW AND TRIED TO INITIALLY BUILT THAT IN FOR
THOSE TERMINAL FORECASTS. LVS AND TCC HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER/WETTER STORMS CONTAINING THE WHOLE GAMBIT OF STORM
EFFECTS. SH/TS COULD GO AWHILE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A WEAKER
BACK DOOR FRONT THERE. ALSO PLACED SOME MVFR CIGS AT LVS LATER
TONIGHT. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  93  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  88  41  87 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  53  89  50  90 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  47  89  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  45  84  42  85 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  91  48  90 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  55  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  53  94  51  95 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  48  81  47  81 /  10   5   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  83  61  85 /  20  10  10   5
PECOS...........................  56  80  55  83 /  20  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  78  53  80 /  20  10  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  71  45  75 /  30  30  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  74  37  78 /  30  30  30  10
TAOS............................  50  85  50  87 /  20  10  10   5
MORA............................  52  77  52  82 /  30  30  30  10
ESPANOLA........................  60  90  58  91 /  10   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  61  83  60  86 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  89  58  91 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  91  68  93 /  10   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  93  67  95 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  68  94  65  97 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  96  64  98 /   5   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  95  61  98 /   5   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  66  95  62  98 /   5   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  65 101  64 103 /  10   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  88  57  91 /  20  10  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  61  91  58  93 /  20  10  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  90  54  91 /  20  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  86  56  88 /  20  20  20  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  89  59  90 /  20  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  93  62  94 /  10   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  59  84  60  85 /  30  20  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  55  77  55  84 /  40  40  50  10
RATON...........................  55  81  54  89 /  30  30  30  10
SPRINGER........................  55  82  54  90 /  30  30  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  81  52  87 /  30  30  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  59  82  60  92 /  30  40  50  10
ROY.............................  59  80  59  90 /  40  30  40  10
CONCHAS.........................  64  89  65  97 /  30  30  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  93  65  97 /  20  30  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  90  67 100 /  40  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  87  64  94 /  50  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  88  64  96 /  50  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  95  67  96 /  20  30  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  70  97  68 101 /  20  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  62  94  62  95 /  20  20  20  10
ELK.............................  61  89  61  89 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NMZ501>540-181200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
536 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NMZ533-172145-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-
320 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

AT 318 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PASTURA...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SANTA ROSA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PASTURA AND SAN IGNACIO.

THIS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 262
AND 273...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 10482 3494 10469 3479 10473 3476 10501
      3490 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 248DEG 8KT 3483 10498

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NMZ537-172215-
DE BACA COUNTY-
344 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DE BACA COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM MDT...

AT 342 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YESO...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF FORT
SUMNER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGHWAY 60 AROUND YESO AND
SUMNER LAKE.

BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10424 3417 10441 3432 10472 3447 10476
      3461 10467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 289DEG 20KT 3441 10457

GUYER