Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SFC
LOW/TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK MAINLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. HOWEVER...CIGS/VSBYS
MOSTLY VFR XCP ISOLD MVRF/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA AND BLDU AS SFC
WNDS GUST TO AROUND 45KT. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS.
AFT 06Z POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY
SOUTH OF KROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013...
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND THU...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAKE FOR A
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.

MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN
AREAS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF I-40 SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY...MANY OF THE CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A
QUEMADO TO TAOS LINE WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN. ONCE
AGAIN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH 15-25 MPH EAST CANYON WINDS. SOME OF THE FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY
PUSH FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AS AN
UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NW US CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN
OVER NEW MEXICO.  A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BOTH DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FAVORING THE AREA
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER...WESTERN AREAS WILL
BE GUSTY TOO. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY...AND THESE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES OF 6 WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.

44

&&

.DISCUSSION...256 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUN. ACTIVE OVER THE EAST MON AND TUE. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

RATHER TAME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE SW AND SC
MOUNTAINS AND NE NM THIS PM. OVERALL LESS COVERAGE AND ENTHUSIASM
THAN ON FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
LINGERING CELLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS.

AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN ON MODELS ARRIVING IN THE SW
TONIGHT AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE SUN. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SUN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE SW AND SC HIGH TERRAIN.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH A PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON EVENING.
A FRESH SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE E WILL
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PEAKS E
TO THE TX BORDER. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE W WITH VERY
LIMITED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE OF THE DRY VARIETY.

THE E WILL DRY OUT SOME FOR THE MID AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WITH OVERALL CONVECTION LOW FROM WED TO FRI. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CREEP N AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
TO OUR E TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS AT LEAST OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE STATE BY THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHILE WINDS INCREASE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WED THROUGH
FRI OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
540 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LOCAL DOWNPOURS...AND SOME HAIL. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCAL DOWNPOURS...AND SOME HAIL. ON
SUNDAY...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SUMMITS
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MONDAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL EASE THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...MEASURED WIND GUSTS...WIND IMPACTS AND ANY OBSERVED HAIL
SIZES THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ530-531-152315-
HARDING COUNTY-UNION COUNTY-
441 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION AND NORTHEASTERN
HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

AT 436 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTH OF BUEYEROS...OR ABOUT 31 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PASAMONTE ROAD...PENNINGTON
ROAD...GONZALES ROAD...GAP ROAD...AND BLUEFRONT ROAD.

BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 10334 3600 10356 3611 10379 3626 10381
      3635 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 293DEG 16KT 3618 10360

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             1 S YESO                34.43N 104.61W
06/15/2013  M0.88 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301162

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             2 S YESO                34.40N 104.61W
06/15/2013  M1.50 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301163

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
512 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ501-503-504-160000-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
512 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

AT 506 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
CEDAR HILL TO FARMINGTON AND 19 MILES EAST OF BURNHAM...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...AZTEC...BLOOMFIELD...CEDAR
HILL AND TURLEY.

BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 10769 3636 10786 3635 10843 3701 10823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 271DEG 19KT 3697 10802 3647 10815

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ530-152330-
UNION COUNTY-
523 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM MDT...

AT 518 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDAN...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE....
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE BETWEEN PLAINVIEW ROAD AND
BOGGS ROAD...

BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 10305 3617 10315 3629 10319 3638 10311
      3640 10304 3639 10303 3614 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 257DEG 4KT 3625 10304

GUYER

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