Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE CONVECTION KICKING OFF IN STYLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE WEST AND NORTH EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL ON TAP FOR THE HEART OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO COVER. UPPER AIR CHARTS DEPICTING RIDGE
CORE OVER THE X IN TEXAS WITH DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE STATE IN OTHERWISE VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PATTERN WILL SET UP SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE BULK OF THE STATE...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER NORTHEAST TRANSPORT
FOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARGINS OF THE STATE.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BASIC STORY THROUGH UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE IN SLOW DRIFT TO THE BOOT
HEEL OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO THE DRAGOON
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. RIDGE CORE EXPANDS
STEADILY OVER ARIZONA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PENETRATE THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE AND SHIFTING
CONVECTIVE FOCUS HEADING INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ROLL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE LOCALLY PAST MIDNIGHT. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALREADY TIL 6 A.M. SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME EXPECTATIONS
THAT NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE TRIMMED OUT OF THE WATCH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TIL DAYBREAK.
TRENDS WILL DICTATE THE OUTCOME AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE CORE EXPANDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WITH THERMAL LOW REMAINING STRONG OVER THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
STATE...WITH MODEST REDUCTIONS IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND SOME CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED EVALUATION
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ONCE THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN. SHOWER FOCUS OTHERWISE IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FAVOR
THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH COVERAGE TAPERING OFF IN THE EAST AS
RIDGE CORE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FROM THE EAST. RAINFALL WILL TAPER
OFF SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE CORE SHIFTING WEST TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND THIS WILL HELP RATCHET DOWN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITIES. HIGH COUNTRY WEST AND CENTRAL...AND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE MOST FAVORED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING TO
TREND LOWER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY...BRINGING ALL POINTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID
AUGUST NORMALS.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE CORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BOOT
HEEL...AND RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DOWN TICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS CORE SHIFTS WEST...SOME
PENETRATION OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PULLING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WILL HELP SHIFT COVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FAVOR THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY KICK OFF SOME GAP FLOW
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY...AND CORE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE CONVECTIVE FOCUS
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INTO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL RECYCLE
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS TREND DOWNWARD.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED COOL PULSES WILL INVADE KEEPING
THESE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TRENDS ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE HEART OF THE RIDGE WILL PERMIT SOME RISES ABOVE MID
AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

VERY ACTIVE DAY IN STORE JUST GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED STORMS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WIGGLE/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ON TAP AS WETTING RAINS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
AREAS.

ACTIVE DAY IN STORE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. NAM ALSO HINTING THAT ANOTHER WAVE IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INFUSE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT FROM THE WEST MONDAY BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED CROP OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CHAIN EASTWARD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NE AND
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RETURN SURFACE
FLOW KEEPS THE EAST ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AS
THE WEST CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE OVER WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS AS OF THIS
WRITING. RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP STORM UPDRAFTS GOING. STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE RG VALLEY AND ERN PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LCL MVFR CIGS...STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WITH BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION FROM THE SCT-
NUMRS STORMS. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SWLY KT JET CORE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM SW
TO NE OVER CENTRAL NM.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  86  59  87 /  30  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  51  80  50  80 /  30  20  20  20
CUBA............................  53  80  53  80 /  40  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  79  53  81 /  30  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  50  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  53  78  53  81 /  40  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  52  78  51  81 /  40  40  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  57  83  55  87 /  50  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  47  74  46  75 /  30  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  78  55  81 /  40  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  55  77  55  80 /  40  30  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  78  48  77 /  30  30  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  44  69  45  68 /  30  30  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  73  46  75 /  30  40  20  30
TAOS............................  48  79  50  81 /  30  20  20  20
MORA............................  51  76  52  77 /  30  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  55  83  55  86 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  53  79  54  82 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  82  57  84 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  83  60  86 /  40  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  84  63  86 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  85  59  88 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  84  60  87 /  40  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  85  61  89 /  40  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  85  62  87 /  40  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  63  86  63  87 /  50  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  80  58  83 /  40  30  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  59  82  59  85 /  40  30  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  81  57  83 /  50  30  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  78  56  81 /  40  30  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  79  58  82 /  60  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  60  83 /  60  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  74  55  76 /  60  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  52  80  51  82 /  30  30  20  30
RATON...........................  53  82  54  84 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  54  81  53  86 /  30  20  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  78  53  81 /  30  30  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  62  89 /  20  20  20  20
ROY.............................  60  86  60  85 /  30  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  87  62  93 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  63  90 /  30  20  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  89  65  93 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  87  65  90 /  30  20  20  10
PORTALES........................  65  86  66  91 /  30  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  87  66  91 /  40  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  89  69  93 /  40  30  20  10
PICACHO.........................  61  83  62  87 /  50  30  30  10
ELK.............................  58  77  60  82 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ506>509-511-518>526-529-533-537>540.

&&

SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT AUG 10 2013

NMZ501>540-111200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM...IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RECENT WILD
FIRE BURN SCARS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN TODAY. AREAS
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FLOODING OR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>