Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KGUP...KLVS...AND KABQ... THOUGH STORMS COULD
IMPACT ALL SITES BUT KROW. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY
TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST... THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILING AND VIS REDUCTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUD BASES
LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT FRI AUG 2 2013...
COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM DAY AHEAD. MAIN CAVEATS TO OVERCOME REMAIN CLOUD
COVER AND MID-LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP
LEVEL. AREAS FAVORED WILL BE THOSE JUST UPSTREAM OF SPOTS THAT
RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. THETA-E RIDGE FROM NAM12
INDICATING THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL RUN FROM SW TO NORTHEAST WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. WEAKER STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HELD OFF
ON A FFW AFTER HEMMING AND HAWING FOR QUITE SOMETIME. ALSO...NAM
AND GFS 500MB TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RATHER WARM...AROUND
-4.5C TO -5C...NOT THE BEST TEMP PROFILE FOR A COOLER THAN AVERAGE
SURFACE HEATING DAY.

DRIER AIR FROM WEST TX AND SE NM WORKS UP INTO SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...LIMITING STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. MOST
OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE WRN MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE NW
PLATEAU AND EAST OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS...WHERE A
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH FROM SE COLORADO THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT TO LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS...CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD...FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WEST
TX EWD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE AROUND MIDWEEK.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE. A
WEAK MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED WETTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT EXCEPT FOR SPOTTY FAIR RECOVERIES NORTHWEST AND
EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TREND UP
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST...AS
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA. A MIXED-BAG OF
VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HEATING LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN. SOME POOR VENT RATES ARE FORECAST...MAINLY WEST.

LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE EAST TO NEAR THE TX/LA STATE LINE BY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
LIKELY OPEN THE DOOR TO A MORE ROBUST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TROUGH FORECAST JUST OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA...
AND LEAD TO A COOLING/WETTING TREND GOING INTO MID WEEK. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THAT PATTERN DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME GOOD MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL AGREEMENT AT 144HRS.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
437 AM MDT FRI AUG 2 2013

NMZ501>540-031130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
437 AM MDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A SWATH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SLOW STEERING LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES IN.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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