Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE UPTREND AS OF 3PM...MOVING
WSW FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. A REPORT
OF 1.54 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR CAME IN FROM NEAR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF SANTA FE...SO THESE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z KABQ PWAT WAS 1.27
INCHES...WHICH IS 147 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLOSE TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE JUICY ATMOSPHERE
OVERHEAD...STORM MOTIONS IS 10 MPH OR LESS WHICH ADDS TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. STORMS APPROACHING THE ABQ METRO
FROM THE NE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A PRIMED AIRMASS TO WORK OVER...
WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -5C. MAIN IMPACT PERIOD FOR
THE ABQ METRO WILL BE FROM 330 TO 530PM MDT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO SUNRISE SURPRISES SATURDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OVERALL WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...
BUT SLOWER STORM MOTION TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER/DRIER OVERALL AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER NEVADA RIDGING INTO COLORADO AND NORTHERN NM. SUNDAY'S
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HUG THE TERRAIN A BIT MORE AS
WELL WITH EVEN LIGHTER STEERING FLOW.

THE FORECAST TRENDS AND CHALLENGES BEYOND MONDAY HAVE NOT CHANGED
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE UPTREND AND CONVECTIVE
DOWNTREND IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ESE
ACROSS NM AND INTO TEXAS. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE STILL SHOWING UP IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING IT EAST OF NM. SO AT SOME
POINT LATE NEXT WEEK...OR POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND BACK UP AS A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN SETS UP. THAT
SAID...LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
WILL KEEP A FEW STRONG STORMS GOING THERE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY INHIBIT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SLIGHTLY
BUT STILL EXPECTING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY VALUES MOST
PLACES BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
ANOTHER ACTIVE TO VERY ACTIVE DAY IN STORE SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...POSSIBLY INCREASING SOMEWHAT MORE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING.

PREVIOUS WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL INDICATIONS WERE THAT A DOWNTREND
IN CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE HEADED
WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. LATEST DATA...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THIS
MAY NOT BE THE CASE. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH UP FROM SOUTH FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES LITTLE
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE TO RECYCLE. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DOWN DAYS
AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/SE.

GENERAL TREND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS TO SHIFT THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH SLOWLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY ALSO GET INTO THE
MIX...MOVING UP INTO SW AZ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW OVER NM TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MORNING RAINFALL KEEPING CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING MUCH LATE THIS MORNING BUT WITH AN HOUR OR TWO MORE OF
ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO NUMRS STORMS OVER THE MTS AND NE AND ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE
VALLEYS AND BASINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINERS CREATING ISOLD MVFR VSBYS AND BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS. SCT
LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE SE PLAINS FROM SEEING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TODAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  92  64  94 /  30  30  30  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  52  87 /  50  50  50  40
CUBA............................  54  84  54  86 /  60  50  60  50
GALLUP..........................  58  85  59  86 /  40  50  50  40
EL MORRO........................  53  81  54  82 /  40  60  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  82  58  84 /  40  40  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  82  57  81 /  50  60  60  50
GLENWOOD........................  56  83  57  84 /  70  40  40  50
CHAMA...........................  50  78  51  80 /  70  70  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  82  61  83 /  50  50  50  50
PECOS...........................  58  77  59  79 /  60  50  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  80  55  83 /  60  60  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  47  73  46  76 /  70  70  70  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  74  44  77 /  70  70  70  50
TAOS............................  54  83  54  85 /  50  50  50  40
MORA............................  53  73  55  78 /  70  60  70  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  84  59  85 /  40  40  40  40
SANTA FE........................  60  83  61  84 /  50  50  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  85  59  86 /  40  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  86  67  87 /  40  50  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  87  68  88 /  40  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  89  65  90 /  30  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  88  66  89 /  30  30  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  89  65  90 /  30  30  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  65  88  66  89 /  40  30  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  90  65  92 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  83  59  84 /  50  60  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  60  84  61  85 /  50  50  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  81  56  83 /  40  60  70  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  79  57  82 /  30  40  60  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  80  59  82 /  40  40  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  83  62  84 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  54  72  54  74 /  40  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  56  81  57  85 /  70  70  50  20
RATON...........................  57  83  58  87 /  70  50  50  30
SPRINGER........................  58  84  59  88 /  70  50  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  79  56  83 /  60  50  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  65  89  66  92 /  40  30  30  10
ROY.............................  62  84  63  87 /  50  40  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  88  67  92 /  30  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  87  66  90 /  30  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  91  69  94 /  20  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  87  64  89 /  10  10  10   5
PORTALES........................  64  88  65  90 /  10  10  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  88  67  90 /  10  10  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  90  67  92 /  10  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  60  84  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
ELK.............................  58  80  58  82 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NMZ501>540-201200-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UNION COUNTY-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND SLOW STORM MOTION. RECENT BURN SCARS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ARE OF GREATEST CONCERN...THOUGH ONE STORM OVER
ANY OF THE RECENT BURN SCARS COULD POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. LIGHT STEERING
FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSTREAM
OF BURN SCARS CONTINUE TO BE OF GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE
WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

34

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