Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1235 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FASTER MOVING SH/TS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE VERSUS WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS FAR AS IMPACTS TO
TERMINAL SITES. HAVE VCTS OR SH MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. HAVE TEMPO SH/TS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR
FMN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SITES. WETTER STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THAT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...CANT RULE OUT SOME LONGER
DURATION RAINFALL AND MVFR CIGS AT LVS AND PERHAPS EVEN ROW BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN NV THIS MORNING TO THE CA/AZ
BORDER THURSDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS AZ
FRIDAY AND OVER NM FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
HIGH APPROACHES OUR COOLING TREND WILL END. AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY A FEW TO 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
CENTRAL AND EAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
WEST...READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY CLIMB A FEW TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE HIGH ARRIVES
KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. THE MOST ACTIVE
DAYS OVERALL SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE
SEEN SHORTWAVES TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA WITH ATTENDANT
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...EXCEPT SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SIGNS OF A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER CO...WHICH IS FARTHER WEST THAN THOSE WE HAVE
SEEN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCATTERED STORMS EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS CELLS TRACKING
OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS CURRENTLY PAINT
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
CLUSTERS OF MORE NUMEROUS CELLS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE HIGH GETS SOUTH OF UT AND
CO...SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD TRACK EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ONE
SUCH SHORTWAVE CLIPPING N AND NE NM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS COULD BE A
DAILY OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

44

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA TO
SHIFT ONLY A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME CHANGES IN THE PATTERN...
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DECREASED AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN OVER NEVADA
WITH CLOSED LOW OVER ILLINOIS AND RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT OVER
AND JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS
ALOFT. GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE WITH GAP WINDS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING
WESTWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING RAIN TO FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS...BUT SOME BETTER INSTABILITY OVER
THE WEST COULD INCREASE COVERAGE TODAY THOUGH AFTERNOON RH MIN
VALUES STILL NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS WITH SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH SOME FAIR VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR WETTING RAIN PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...
REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TO
TREND UP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH HAINES OF 5 TO 6 OVER
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
611 AM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
611 AM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IN WESTERN
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. IN ADDITION SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. RAIN AT THIS RATE
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED
FORESTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND ALSO IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40. IN ADDITION SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE TEXAS BORDER...AND ALSO AROUND GLENWOOD. RAIN AT THIS RATE
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED
FORESTS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1229 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NMZ530-021900-
UNION COUNTY-
1229 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 100
PM MDT...

AT 1230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SEDAN.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 10337 3643 10327 3643 10304 3603 10302
      3601 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 001DEG 26KT 3634 10316

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
106 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NMZ515-528-529-021930-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
106 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORA AND NORTHERN SAN
MIGUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

AT 106 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA CUEVA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MORA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAPELLO...STORRIE LAKE STATE
PARK AND SAN ANTONIO.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 161 AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 10500 3562 10528 3594 10524 3594 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 001DEG 15KT 3585 10513

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
116 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NMZ502-505-506-021945-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-
116 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MCKINLEY COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM MDT...

AT 116 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF YAH-TA-HEY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GALLUP...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GALLUP...YAH-TA-HEY...
MANUELITO...GAMERCO...MENTMORE AND ALLISON.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 10867 3539 10901 3575 10903 3576 10880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 349DEG 16KT 3564 10890

34

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