Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT...

AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE SCENARIO FOR NM IS TAKING SHAPE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT AND THE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG.
WEST WINDS NEAR 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH AND A DEWPOINT OF 21F
AT CLINES CORNERS CONTRASTS EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40MPH AND A
DEWPOINT OF 64F AT MELROSE. SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HI RES MESOANALYSIS INDICATE
THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS. NOT MUCH TIME FOR FULL DISCUSSION
ON THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST SO WILL KEEP IT BRIEF.

THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. THE FINE LINE WILL BE ALONG THE
SE HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE SLOSHING FROM DAILY ROUNDS OF
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTRAST VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST. HAVE ESSENTIALLY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE POP FORECAST EXCEPT TO PERHAPS DRAG THINGS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE
HOT WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.

ONCE WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY THRU NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO NEAR 597DM AND REALLY SCORCH THE AREA WITH HEAT. 700MB TEMPS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD +20C ONCE AGAIN SO WHILE RECORD HEAT MAY NOT
BE AS LIKELY AS WAS LAST WEEK...IT WILL BE VERY HOT AND NEAR RECORD.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE TRICKLING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH LATE DAY TERRAIN EFFECTS LEADING
TO ISOLD DRY/GUSTY STORMS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT SET UP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FAVORING THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS NEAR
TO THE COLORADO AND AZ STATE LINES AS WELL AS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE HERKY JERKY WITH WIDE GUST
SPREADS DUE TO THE TURBULENT MIXING OR ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS.
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THURSDAY.
THOUGHT HARD ABOUT THE EASTERN PLAINS ZONES...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS
BUT BELIEVE THE MODELS ARENT HANDLING THE DRYLINE VERY WELL THERE.
SINCE FUEL CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE WITH EITHER LOCALIZED GREENUP OR
NO GRASS AT ALL.

THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EAST AND HOW
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BE MOST TRICKY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH EXPECT HUMIDITY VALUES TO SLOWLY TREND UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AS TIME GOES ON DUE TO CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EAST AND MOISTURE TRYING TO SEEP UP FROM THE SOUTH.

HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME
SUPER HAINES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED DURING THE WEEKEND. 6 VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH ERODE SOME DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATION OF MOISTURE EVER SO SLOWLY FLOWING WESTWARD. DECIDED TO
ADJUST DEWPOINTS AND THUS RH VALUES DOWN WITHIN THE MAIN MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION AREA...BELOW TO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE AND WENT HIGHER
ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST AS TIME GOES ON. THIS IS A SCENARIO THAT
GENERALLY OCCURS DURING A NORMAL JUNE LIKE THIS YEAR.

ALSO DECIDED TO INCREASE THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND TO MIMIC MORE OF WHAT OCCURRED TODAY AND WHAT IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
LESS SO WILL RELEGATE THE WATCH AREA TO THREE ZONES AT THIS
TIME...ZONE 105/101 AND 102. AGAIN FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
AREAS NEAR THE AZ/CO STATE LINES. ALSO ADJUST WIND SPEEDS UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH ECWMF AND GFS HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING JET PUSHES INTO
THE SEMIPERMANENT PACIFIC TROUGH. THUS...SEEING SOME MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A BLEND OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HAINES 6 TO EVEN LOCALIZED SUPER HAINES VALUES.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRYLINE AND WETTING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST OR REMAIN PERSISTENT THERE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE DATIL AND MAGDALENA
RANGES DUE TO MOISTURE TRYING TO SEEP UP FROM THE SOUTH. EVEN MORE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS BECOME PRETTY DYNAMIC THEN
DUE TO WIDE MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS EVENTUALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AS
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENS SOME. EITHER
WAY...A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD START EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM EVEN MORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THIS FLOW
SITUATION...WILL BE LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO SNEAK UP FROM MEXICO AS
WELL AS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF
NOT TOO BULLISH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
SUSPECT THAT WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM AND
TRY TO CAP STORM DEVELOPMENT.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREATS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD
FIRE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ROW AND TCC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORM IMPACTS. WIND IS A BIG
THREAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BLOWING DUST AT ROW. CANT RULE OUT A
DRIER SHOWER AND WIND IMPACTING LVS BUT MORE POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
EAST. TURBULENT MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO BE SHUNTED A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST BUT NOT BY MUCH.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  51  93  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  39  88  39  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  47  92  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  42  90  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  38  86  40  87 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  46  92  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  90  50  90 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  95  50  97 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  46  81  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  88  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  59  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  81  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  46  77  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  82  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  48  88  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  53  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  58  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  61  88  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  94  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  96  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  98  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  99  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  98  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  60  99  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  60 104  62  99 /   0   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  91  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  59  93  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  91  59  89 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  94  63  92 /   0  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  58  85  57  84 /   0  20  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  88  57  84 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  57  93  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  56  94  54  90 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  91  54  88 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  61  97  63  97 /   5   5   5  10
ROY.............................  61  93  61  91 /   5   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  67  97  67  97 /   5   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  66  98  66  94 /   5  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  98  69 101 /  20  10  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  94  64  93 /  30  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  64  95  64  92 /  30  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  95  67  93 /  10  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  99  68  98 /  10  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  64  91  64  89 /   0  20  20  20
ELK.............................  62  85  61  84 /   5  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102-105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

NMZ501>540-201200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
539 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO TEXAS BORDER. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR POINTS IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             29 S YESO               34.02N 104.57W
06/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301176

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
353 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             4 N TUCUMCARI           35.23N 103.73W
06/19/2013  E2.75 INCH       QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301177

43

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
401 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

NMZ536-538-192245-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
401 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

AT 358 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF CAPROCK...OR ABOUT 45 MILES
EAST OF ROSWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 10342 3356 10348 3356 10371 3350 10372
      3348 10378 3363 10389 3378 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 250DEG 20KT 3357 10377

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
413 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             3 NW TUCUMCARI          35.20N 103.77W
06/19/2013  E2.75 INCH       QUAY               NM   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301178

JF

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