Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Albuquerque, NM

931 
WGUS75 KABQ 021943
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
143 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

NMC031-043-022115-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-130902T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL-MCKINLEY-
143 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL MCKINLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES...

AT 135 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH OF LAGUNA PUEBLO.
THE STORM WHICH HAD PRODUCED THE VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS WEAKENED SOME.  
DRAINAGES FOUND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF MESA CHIVATO...NORTHWEST OF
MARQUEZ WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY RUNOFF. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 10726 3533 10745 3551 10742 3552 10729

$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MID CLOUD COVER LEADING TO A SLOWER START TO CONVECTION TODAY.
STILL EXPECTING VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PLENTIFUL
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING. MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM CONT DIVIDE E TO CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS.
UPPER HIGH CENTER JOGGING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW AND WILL BE OVR NW
PLATEAU BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOCKWISE STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE
STORMS EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SWD AND STORMS OVER SW AND W-C NM
TO THE N AND NE. STORMS OVER NW NM WILL PRIMARILY DRIFT NORTHEAST
TO EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND LOW VSBYS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN/EVE. MT TOPS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED.
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON SEP 2 2013...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY THEN SLOWLY
WANDER NORTH...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND DRIFTING EVEN FARTHER NORTH BY 12Z THU.

FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO. ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND COMMENCES. MODELS STILL SUGGEST
LOCALES IN/NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST HIGHER
TERRAIN. SLOW CELL MOTION WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NEAR RECORD
BREAKING HEAT SEEN IN RECENT DAYS FOR THE EAST AND LOWER/MID RGV
WILL BE ABSENT.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE EAST...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST HALF
TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRYING TREND BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RELEGATING MOST CONVECTION TO
THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM AGAIN
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOOKING TO BE CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME
GYRATIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED. AT
THIS TIME NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WESTERLIES ARE ALLOWED TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO
AND A FRONT SAGS INTO THE PLAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY AND SOMEWHAT ON
TUESDAY...THEN A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH THIS MOISTURE ESSENTIALLY
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS WILL BE
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS BY AFTERNOON. STORMS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE 25 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO WORK INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUS...STORMS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST.
WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE REDUCED OVER TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES VERY LITTLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.  THIS ALLOWS THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE MID WEST TO
CONTINUE TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BE IN STORE.  ON WEDNESDAY...STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED FURTHER...GENERALLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL MTNS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW 20S AND PERHAPS
HIGH TEENS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DRY AIR BECOMES FULLY
ENTRENCHED OVER NM BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND VERY FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...KEEPING DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

POOR TO GOOD VENTILATION TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORY...BUT WILL START TO
TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT AT
THIS TIME...STORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER SCARCE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY-
600 AM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTH ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING.

A DRYING TREND SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH AND
WEST CENTRAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1241 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

NMZ506-507-021915-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1241 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN MCKINLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM MDT...

AT 1234 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF MARQUEZ...OR ABOUT 29 MILES
NORTH OF LAGUNA PUEBLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
EASTERN MCKINLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 10722 3534 10736 3545 10742 3553 10734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 313DEG 4KT 3546 10732

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
105 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

NMZ518-521-021930-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
105 PM MDT MON SEP 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BERNALILLO AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

AT 100 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANDIA PARK...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERNALILLO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANDIA PARK AND SAN ANTONITO.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 10626 3513 10643 3522 10641 3523 10634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 346DEG 3KT 3518 10635

50