Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Albuquerque, NM

983 
WGUS75 KABQ 042157
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
357 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMC007-042315-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-130804T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLFAX-
357 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED 20 MILES EAST OF VERMEJO PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10445 3677 10453 3673 10520 3700 10498

$$

982 
WGUS75 KABQ 042313
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMC007-042323-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-130804T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLFAX-
513 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLFAX COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3700 10445 3677 10453 3673 10520 3700 10498

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
216 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM. 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOIST INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH 2000-3500J/KG CAPE AND LIFTED
INDICES BTWN -3 AND -6C FROM THE RGV INTO THE NE PLAINS. 700-500MB
STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE NORTH NEAR 5 KTS WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS HIGHER AS WELL. PLACED
MENTION OF LCL HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACTIVATE IN THIS REGIME TO PRODUCE
MORE STORMS FOR VALLEY AREAS LATER IN THE DAY AS SHOWN BY THE RUC
AND HRRR GUIDANCE. A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH OVER CENTRAL NM AS WELL TONIGHT. RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
THIS REGION.

MONDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AGAIN. THE GFS INDICATES PWAT VALUES
WILL TREND DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOW AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. WESTERN NM WILL STILL SEE
VERY WEAK STORM MOTIONS WITH LCL HEAVY RAINFALL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACTIVE AS WELL. AN EASTERLY WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AND IMPACT EASTERN
AZ/WESTERN NM. RAISED POPS FOR TUESDAY. STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE
MORE BUT STILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FOR THE
WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BECOME CAUGHT UP IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND ENHANCE A SURFACE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST NM. THE NAM IS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. OVERALL THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO LOCK IN A VERY
WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...BECOMING ELONGATED NEAR THE TX
GULF COAST REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WELL ADVERTISED UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS PANNED OUT WELL WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE VALLEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
RAINS INCREASING AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER FLOW
REGIME WILL FAVOR LATE NIGHT OR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS FOR AREAS BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE CENTRAL
VALLEY CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FAVORED.

WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOON PLUME ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MONDAY MORNING MAY LIMIT EARLY DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS
TOMORROW/S CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY BUT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO A RELATIVELY FASTER SW TO NE
STEERING FLOW...AND POSSIBLY AN ENHANCED WINDOW OF MOISTURE/DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE REGION IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. WHILE MODELS SHOW
THIS FEATURE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK BACK TOWARD THE EAST AND THE FOUR
CORNERS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME NICE CONSISTENCY THUS
FAR AND WE WILL SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS FEATURE...HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY TRACK BUT
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE WAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WED-WED PM.  AT THE SAME TIME...A GOOD LOOKING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS INDICATED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST.  EXTENT OF LOWER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST REMAINS
A BIG QUESTION MARK...AS MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING DEW
POINTS DURING THE WED/THU PERIOD.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONSIDERABLY MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM CROP FOR WESTERN AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...AS COMPARED TO 24-HOURS AGO. THIS
INCLUDES THE ABQ-SANTA FE CORRIDOR. STEERING FLOW GENERALLY S-SW
TO N-NE BUT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...ANY POTENTIAL
TSRA IMPACTS AT KSAF AND KABQ NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID- AFTERNOON AT
THE EARLIEST. EARLIER IMPACTS AT KGUP AND KLVS AND HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUP THERE WHERE CONFIDENCE HIGHEST. FLOW REGIME FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KABQ LATE INTO EVENING IF NOT
PAST MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS LEAST UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND UNFAVORABLE STEERING FLOW WILL PRECLUDE TSRA
AT KROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER EC/NE NM BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS
YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  92  65  90 /  40  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  55  86  54  83 /  50  40  30  40
CUBA............................  56  87  55  84 /  60  40  40  30
GALLUP..........................  59  84  58  84 /  40  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  78  53  77 /  50  40  30  40
GRANTS..........................  58  83  57  82 /  60  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  57  81  55  80 /  40  50  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  61  87  60  85 /  30  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  52  77  51  74 /  60  50  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  82  59  80 /  60  40  30  40
PECOS...........................  59  80  58  77 /  60  40  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  56  79  55  77 /  60  40  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  49  71  48  69 /  60  50  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  75  46  73 /  50  40  30  50
TAOS............................  56  84  54  82 /  60  30  20  40
MORA............................  55  79  54  77 /  50  40  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  62  86  61  84 /  60  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  61  83  59  80 /  60  30  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  87  61  83 /  60  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  89  66  86 /  60  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  91  68  88 /  60  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  92  65  90 /  60  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  93  66  91 /  60  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  90  65  87 /  60  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  66  93  66  90 /  60  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  67  96  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  86  60  84 /  60  30  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  62  87  61  85 /  60  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  59  87  58  84 /  60  40  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  61  83  60  81 /  50  50  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  87  60  83 /  40  30  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  91  64  86 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  58  82  57  78 /  30  50  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  57  83  58  82 /  50  40  30  40
RATON...........................  59  88  59  87 /  50  30  30  40
SPRINGER........................  60  88  59  87 /  40  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  59  83  58  82 /  50  40  30  40
CLAYTON.........................  67  91  67  92 /  30  30  30  30
ROY.............................  64  88  63  88 /  30  40  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  70  95  69  94 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  69  93  68  92 /  20  30  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  73  99  72  98 /  10  10  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  69  95  68  95 /   5   5  10  10
PORTALES........................  69  95  68  96 /   5   5  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  95  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  98  72  97 /   5   5  10  20
PICACHO.........................  64  90  66  89 /  20  20  20  30
ELK.............................  61  83  61  82 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMZ501>540-051130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
441 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
159 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE BONITO LAKE       33.48N 105.68W
08/04/2013                   LINCOLN            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS WASHED OVER BELOW CANYONS IN LOMA GRANDE
            SUBDIVISION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301282

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
207 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMZ527-528-042045-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
207 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLFAX COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM MDT...

AT 204 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF RATON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RATON...SUGARITE CANYON STATE
PARK AND SUGARITE.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10438 3675 10439 3680 10477 3699 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 305DEG 14KT 3689 10462