Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

771 
WGUS75 KABQ 270736
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
136 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

NMC001-043-053-061-270744-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-130727T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL-SOCORRO-VALENCIA-BERNALILLO-
136 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL BERNALILLO...CENTRAL
VALENCIA...CENTRAL SOCORRO AND SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES...

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE ARE STILL NUMEROUS ROADWAYS THAT ARE
CLOSED ACROSS THE AREA AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES FROM FLASH 
FLOODING EARLIER. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE 
TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE.

LAT...LON 3472 10688 3512 10672 3553 10669 3567 10632
      3549 10626 3523 10651 3503 10658 3412 10647
      3391 10689

$$
GUYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY FOR THE SANTA FE-ABQ
CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KSAF THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WITH
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT KABQ
BETWEEN 02Z-07Z OWING TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE THE CENTRAL CORRIDOR...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MUCH LESS ACTIVE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS AT KTCC
AND KROW AS THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS DRIFTS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL...WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF STATE WITH CLEARING FOR THE FAR NC
AND NW PORTIONS.  ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AHEAD FOR SATURDAY. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013...
HEAVY RAIN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NM.  LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS IS GOING TO BE THE
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LARGE BURN SCAR.  WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH
10 PM. STORMS A LITTLE SLOWER TO GET GOING ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH
ARE PICKING UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS ROLLING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE OF A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF STORMS AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS AND POINT SOUTH.
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ON STORM COVERAGE IN THESE
AREAS...THOUGH THE LOCAL WRF DOES HAVE STORMS MOVING INTO THE ABQ
METRO.  CONTEMPLATED ADDING THE ABQ METRO TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO.

ON SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NM
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SINKS INTO OLD MEXICO. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING EVEN HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA...AND THOUGH
STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE BETTER FROM WEST TO EAST...THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE MORNING CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT QUITE A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING. IF THIS CLOUD COVER
DOES NOT BREAK...INSTABILITY WONT BE AS GREAT. IF THE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT.

BY SUNDAY...THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO REALLY TAKE
SHAPE...AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NM FROM THE WEST. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS...AND STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
INCREASE. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES ITS DOWN TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. A LINGERING BOUNDARY
IN THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS BOTH DAYS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER CREEPS BACK UP INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BROUGHT UP WITH IT.  THE UPPER HIGH
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT THE BEST PATTERN
FOR NM...BUT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND UPWARD. NOT LOOKING QUITE
AS WET AS TODAY AND TOMORROW HOWEVER.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY
BUT WILL MOVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND CREATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES. A SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS A RESULT. POSSIBLE RETURN TO SOME SORT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME LATE NEXT WEEK.

WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DUE TO
STABILITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. STEERING
FLOWS ARE ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER
HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
AZ...STEERING FLOWS WILL LARGELY BE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OR NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. STEERING FLOWS NEAR THE AZ STATE LINE WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES TONIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH REPOSITIONING THE PARENT UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE AZ HAS
FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS WILL BE FROM WEST TO
EAST THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAIN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND UP PRETTY
MUCH AREAWIDE BUT ESPECIALLY FAVOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
BASICALLY A MONSOON BURST SCENARIO BUT FROM THE WEST.

MODELS SHOW THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH WAFFLES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ARIZONA WILL HAVE TURNED
DRIER BY THIS POINT SO THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR TO FLOW OVER THE STATE. RESIDUAL HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND
AT THE SURFACE SO LOOK FOR A DEWPOINT DRYING TREND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT AND THE FOOTPRINT
OF WETTING RAIN WILL ALSO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY.  MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BUT WERE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH A
BACK DOOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STORM CHANCES AND WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD WILL BE TIED TO THIS WIND SHIFT. THE
WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PICK UP OVER THE STATE AND ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTIER SURFACE WINDS NOT TIED TO THUNDERSTORMS. DEFINITELY SOME
NOTICEABLE BREEZES ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT RED FLAG SPEEDS AT THIS
TIME.

THE DRIER DAYS STILL APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST BUT COULD SEE THOSE READINGS LOWER AS WE GET NEARED
TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AND COULD PROJECT TO BE WARMER SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS. THE
EASTERN PLAINS IS MORE SUBJECTIVE BECAUSE A BACK DOOR WIND SHIFT
COULD IMPACT THAT AREA AND COOL CONDITIONS SOME AND PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAIN CHANCES.

MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MOISTENING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH AS IT TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO. REAL SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT THE STATE EXPERIENCES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE STORMS
WILL START OUT WITH A SMALL WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT AND OUTFLOW WINDS
WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT MORE
BULLISH THAN GFS ON DEVELOPING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME LATE WEEK SO WILL BE MONITORING THAT TREND.

50

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY.
THUS...GUP...SAF AND ABQ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED.
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE SHOULD
KEEP ACTIVITY ON THE ISOLD SIDE AROUND FMN SO WILL GO WITH A VCSH
THERE. LVS ALSO HAS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME IMPACTS BUT THE MODELS
VARY ON HOW MUCH SO WENT A LITTLE BULLISH THERE AT THIS TIME. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO UPDATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FOR LVS. TCC
AND ROW ARE LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY SH/TS DUE TO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FOUND AROUND THOSE TERMINAL SITES. STRONGER STORMS
WILL REDUCE VIS/CIG AND CREATE ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT
DURATION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPO GROUPS. AN OVERALL UPTICK
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A WEST TO
EAST STEERING FLOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509-520-524>526.

&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NMZ501>540-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
547 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF LINCOLN...SOCORRO...CATRON...
CIBOLA...AND MCKINLEY COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MOVE SOUTH AGAIN INTO THE SANTA
FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR RECENTLY BURNED
FORESTS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW ALBUQUERQUE        35.11N 106.64W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   TWITTER FEED

            SEVERAL VEHICLES SUBMERGED ON CENTRAL AVENUE UNDER
            RAILROAD TRACKS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301262

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
902 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S ALBUQUERQUE         35.07N 106.62W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

            LEAD AND BROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301263

AAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
908 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S ALBUQUERQUE         35.03N 106.62W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            I25 AT RIO BRAVO THRU GIBSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301264

AAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBUQUERQUE             35.12N 106.62W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            I25S BIG I TO GIBSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301265

AAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1037 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ALBUQUERQUE         35.19N 106.62W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

            ALAMEDA AT RIO GRANDE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301266

AAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1102 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S ALBUQUERQUE         35.07N 106.62W
07/26/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ISOTOPES PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301268

AAM