Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Albuquerque, NM

264 
WGUS75 KABQ 262100
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NMC003-262245-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130726T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATRON-
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY...

AT 254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER AND NEAR THE 
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN AREA. ONE PARTICULAR STORM WAS LOCATED 30 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF MOGOLLON...OR ABOUT 31 MILES NORTH OF SILVER CITY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH ALONG STATE ROAD 15 NEAR THE GILA CLIFF
DWELLINGS NATIONAL MONUMENT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOOD WATERS MAY BE MOVING DOWN THE WEST FORK OF THE GILA RIVER FROM
NEAR THE GILA CLIFF DWELLING NATIONAL MONUMENT. RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL 
WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN OTHER VULNERABLE DRAINAGES 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY FIRE BURN AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 10886 3373 10848 3320 10813 3320 10878
      3334 10891

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY.
THUS...GUP...SAF AND ABQ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED.
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE SHOULD
KEEP ACTIVITY ON THE ISOLD SIDE AROUND FMN SO WILL GO WITH A VCSH
THERE. LVS ALSO HAS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME IMPACTS BUT THE MODELS
VARY ON HOW MUCH SO WENT A LITTLE BULLISH THERE AT THIS TIME. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO UPDATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FOR LVS. TCC
AND ROW ARE LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY SH/TS DUE TO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FOUND AROUND THOSE TERMINAL SITES. STRONGER STORMS
WILL REDUCE VIS/CIG AND CREATE ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT
DURATION. THIS IS RELFECTED IN THE TEMPO GROUPS. AN OVERALL UPTICK
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A WEST TO
EAST STEERING FLOW.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...455 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013...
AFTER ANALYZING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH
WFO EL PASO HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FFA FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY (SSEO)
HANDS DOWN OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER GUIDANCE THURSDAY SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD ITS LATEST SOLUTION TODAY. ENSEMBLE REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CATRON...CIBOLA...AND
MCKINLEY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO THE SW MTS WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO EXAMINE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS NORTHERN NM AS MODELS INDICATE ACTIVITY SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
INITIALLY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS. HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE DAY MAY ALLOW FOR THE STORM
COMPLEX FARTHER NORTH TO ORGANIZE SOUTHWARD INTO THE METRO AREAS.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013...
EXTREMELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE BACK
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TRAINING
CELLS OVER THE ALBUQUERQUE/RIO RANCHO AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN
2 AND 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...WITH FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
MANY AREAS FROM ALGODONES TO BERNALILLO...SANDIA PUEBLO...AND THE
ALBUQUERQUE EAST SIDE.

FRIDAY COULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AS
THE SURFACE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STALLED WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL
LIGHTEN UP STEERING FLOW AND PROVIDE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.
DEEPLY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...HOWEVER THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED FROM
THICK CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND RE-EVALUATE WITH A MORE TIME
LATER ON SHIFT.

SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
AND 06Z NAM SHOWING A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF THE
CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NM BECOMES CUT OFF AND TRAPPED
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN NM. THE WAVE THEN
DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PRODUCES A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES THIS FEATURE
BUT GIVEN THE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WILL
NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS JUST YET. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER NM. THIS WILL MEAN FASTER STORM MOTIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RECYCLED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHIFT INTO VALLEY LOCALES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF NW NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
N AND NW FLOW ALOFT...SOME OF THIS HEAVIER ACTIVITY COULD ALSO DRIFT
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THAT SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM AND
UKMET ARE ALL BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS/MODEL RUNS DEPICT A PERTURBATION OR WAVE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE PASSING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS DAY WILL POSE A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS
PWATS VARY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MORE DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN NM.  A RESULTANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH BETTER DRYING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AS THE WEATHER DRIES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FEWER
AND FARTHER BETWEEN AND THEIR WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL SHRINK. EVEN
WITH THE DRIER AIR DURING OUR MONSOON PAUSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP TO ROUGHLY BETWEEN 20
AND 35 PERCENT IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE 500 MB HIGH TO SHIFT
EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF WRAPS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BACK
OVER THE STATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GFS BRINGS THE
MOISTURE UP MORE SLOWLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509-520-524>526.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NMZ501>540-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
547 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF LINCOLN...SOCORRO...CATRON...
CIBOLA...AND MCKINLEY COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MOVE SOUTH AGAIN INTO THE SANTA
FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR RECENTLY BURNED
FORESTS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
918 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BERNALILLO              35.32N 106.56W
07/26/2013                   SANDOVAL           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301252

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
926 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BERNALILLO              35.32N 106.56W
07/26/2013                   SANDOVAL           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOMES FLOODED ALONG CAROLINA DR.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301252

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NW COCHITI LAKE      35.75N 106.47W
07/25/2013                   SANDOVAL           NM   BURN SCAR SPOTS

            BLAND CANYON OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301253

JLP