Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Albuquerque, NM

494 
WGUS75 KABQ 200422
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NMC007-200530-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130720T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLFAX-
1022 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 1012 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTH 
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLFAX COUNTY. THE STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAIN WERE CONTINUING TO REGENERATE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY...
  RATON...
  THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR AND WEST OF RATON...
  RATON PASS...
  BARTLETT AND JOHNSON MESAS...
  THE TRACK FIRE BURN SCAR AND LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SCAR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH TO ONE FULL INCH ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10414 3673 10446 3681 10453 3695 10490
      3700 10482 3700 10463 3701 10459 3699 10409

$$

012 
WGUS75 KABQ 200520
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NMC007-200531-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130720T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLFAX-
1120 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM MDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLFAX COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3677 10414 3673 10446 3681 10453 3695 10490
      3700 10482 3700 10463 3701 10459 3699 10409

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
725 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS TODAY AND EXPECTED HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. PWAT VALUES WILL COME UP EVEN
A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THE REGION AND STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN. CONSIDERING IMPACTS FROM STORMS TODAY WE EXPECT VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. FFA ALREADY
ON THE STREET AND PRODUCT UPDATES FOLLOWING SHORTLY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NMRS TS/SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND
W OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE
STATE. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND COPIOUS HAIL WITH MT OBSCURATION. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
TAPER OFF TO ISOLD AFT MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-NMRS STORMS
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NV...THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE S AND SW
ACROSS NM.

44

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013...
ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE UPTREND AS OF 3PM...MOVING
WSW FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. A REPORT
OF 1.54 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR CAME IN FROM NEAR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF SANTA FE...SO THESE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z KABQ PWAT WAS 1.27
INCHES...WHICH IS 147 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLOSE TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE JUICY ATMOSPHERE
OVERHEAD...STORM MOTIONS IS 10 MPH OR LESS WHICH ADDS TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. STORMS APPROACHING THE ABQ METRO
FROM THE NE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A PRIMED AIRMASS TO WORK OVER...
WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -5C. MAIN IMPACT PERIOD FOR
THE ABQ METRO WILL BE FROM 330 TO 530PM MDT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO SUNRISE SURPRISES SATURDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OVERALL WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...
BUT SLOWER STORM MOTION TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER/DRIER OVERALL AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER NEVADA RIDGING INTO COLORADO AND NORTHERN NM. SUNDAY'S
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HUG THE TERRAIN A BIT MORE AS
WELL WITH EVEN LIGHTER STEERING FLOW.

THE FORECAST TRENDS AND CHALLENGES BEYOND MONDAY HAVE NOT CHANGED
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE UPTREND AND CONVECTIVE
DOWNTREND IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ESE
ACROSS NM AND INTO TEXAS. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE STILL SHOWING UP IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING IT EAST OF NM. SO AT SOME
POINT LATE NEXT WEEK...OR POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND BACK UP AS A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN SETS UP. THAT
SAID...LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

11

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
WILL KEEP A FEW STRONG STORMS GOING THERE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY INHIBIT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SLIGHTLY
BUT STILL EXPECTING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY VALUES MOST
PLACES BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
ANOTHER ACTIVE TO VERY ACTIVE DAY IN STORE SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...POSSIBLY INCREASING SOMEWHAT MORE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING.

PREVIOUS WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL INDICATIONS WERE THAT A DOWNTREND
IN CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE HEADED
WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. LATEST DATA...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THIS
MAY NOT BE THE CASE. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH UP FROM SOUTH FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES LITTLE
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE TO RECYCLE. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DOWN DAYS
AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/SE.

GENERAL TREND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS TO SHIFT THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH SLOWLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY ALSO GET INTO THE
MIX...MOVING UP INTO SW AZ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW OVER NM TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>529.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NMZ501>540-201200-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UNION COUNTY-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND SLOW STORM MOTION. RECENT BURN SCARS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ARE OF GREATEST CONCERN...THOUGH ONE STORM OVER
ANY OF THE RECENT BURN SCARS COULD POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. LIGHT STEERING
FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSTREAM
OF BURN SCARS CONTINUE TO BE OF GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE
WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
629 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NMZ525-526-200115-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
629 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NEAR CARRIZOZO MOVING SLOWLY...

AT 624 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR
CARRIZOZO. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL WEST CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED FUNNEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS STORM.

THESE SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS TEND TO BE BRIEF...SMALL AND
RELATIVELY WEAK. ON RARE OCCASIONS...THESE CLOUDS CAN BRIEFLY TOUCH
THE GROUND. WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FUNNELS ARE GENERALLY
UNDER 60 MPH...BUT CAN DAMAGE LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS CARPORTS
AND AWNINGS...IN THEIR PATH.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 10586 3358 10610 3374 10591 3367 10571
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 024DEG 4KT 3363 10586

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
638 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             9 S ALBUQUERQUE         34.99N 106.62W
07/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            UNIVERSITY AND STRAND LOOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301239

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
649 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S LA MADERA           36.33N 106.04W
07/19/2013                   RIO ARRIBA         NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD 111 WASHED OUT ALONG RIO VALLECITOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301240

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
652 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EL RITO                 36.34N 106.19W
07/19/2013                   RIO ARRIBA         NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD 554 WASHED OUT IN EL RITO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301241

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
816 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE ALBUQUERQUE       35.09N 106.54W
07/19/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN IN A COUPLE AREAS FROM JUAN TABO AND
            CANDELARIA TO WYOMING AND LOMAS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301242

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
821 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE ALBUQUERQUE       35.09N 106.54W
07/19/2013                   BERNALILLO         NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE MANHOLE COVERS BLOWN OUT OF ROADWAY FROM FLASH
            FLOODING IN AREA AROUND SPAIN AND EUBANK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301243

GUYER