Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Albuquerque, NM

014 
WGUS75 KABQ 130018
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
618 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

NMC047-049-130115-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-SAN MIGUEL-
618 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR PECOS...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF SANTA FE. THE STORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HYDE MEMORIAL STATE PARK...
  TESUQUE...
  TERERRO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN 
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE TRES LAGUNAS FIRE 
BURN AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 10592 3583 10597 3575 10548 3556 10544
      3551 10567

$$

40

695 
WGUS75 KABQ 130046
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
646 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

NMC047-049-130115-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-SAN MIGUEL-
646 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES...

AT 642 PM MDT...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED
NEAR PECOS...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTA FE. THE STORM
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HYDE MEMORIAL STATE PARK...
  UPPER COLONIAS...
  TESUQUE...
  TERERRO...
  GLORIETA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN 
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE TRES LAGUNAS FIRE 
BURN AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 10592 3583 10597 3575 10548 3556 10544
      3551 10567

$$

40

195 
WGUS75 KABQ 130115
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

NMC047-049-130125-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-SAN MIGUEL-
715 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
EAST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS 
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS 
LESSENED. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR 
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3565 10592 3583 10597 3575 10548 3556 10544
      3551 10567

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER VCNTY SW KS AT 00Z WILL SHIFT BACK WWD AND
OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 24 HRS. EARLIER STORMS WHICH IGNITED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...TRIGGERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CELL
MOVEMENT GENLY TO THE NORTH. ISOLD HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN MVFR
TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 03Z BEFORE
CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MODERATE SWLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS LEE TROF OVER ERN CO STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013...
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE WEST EXPECT VARIABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE AZ STATE LINE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
VARIABLE TO GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH STORM MOTIONS IN THE WEST AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ACROSS
THE EAST STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH
AROUND 15 MPH OR GREATER. THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING RECORDED 1.07
INCHES OF PWAT...STILL PLENTIFUL BUT NOT AS COPIOUS AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...TODAY WE HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 1792 J/KG
COMPARED TO 760 J/KG YESTERDAY MORNING. THUS...OVERALL MORE STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CURRENT
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME CIRCULATING NORTH...AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS AZ/NM AND NORTH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTION WILL BE LEAST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... A HIGHLY UNUSUAL PATTERN DEVELOPS...WITH AN UPPER
LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING.  THIS UPPER LOW MORPHS INTO A HYBRID LOW
WITH SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT NEARS NEW MEXICO.  MODELS NOW
INDICATE THAT ON MONDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH TO SOUTH
BAND OF RAIN TO MOVE GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN BAND IS PUSHED WEST BY A PERSISTENT EAST
OR NORTHEAST WIND DRIVEN BY A SUBSTANTIAL 14 MB EAST TO WEST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HEAT LOW OVER ARIZONA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OK-TX PANHANDLES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...FROM
THE SACRAMENTOS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
THREAT POTENTIAL AS THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES AND DEVELOPS.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE HYBRID UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THEN TRACKS SOUTH INTO CHIHUAHUA. AS IT DOES SO...THE DOOR IS OPENED
TO VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE HYBRID UPPER LOW MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA.  THE UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACED NW
ACROSS WY/UT/NV...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER NM...AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THIS PATTERN WILL SETUP A CONVECTIVE RECYCLING
MODE WITH AFTERNOON STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BENNETT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DOWNTICK ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WWD AGAIN AND OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS STILL AGREEING ON A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR WEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OVER NEW MEXICO AND THEN WEAKEN
DURING THE WORK WEEK.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
RESULTING PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THAT RANGE FROM NEAR 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID JULY FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE PREDICTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS THE UPPER LOW FADES
AWAY. ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WILDFIRE BURN SCARS COULD BE SUBJECTED
TO REPEATED RAINFALL...SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

NMZ501>540-131200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
528 AM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS
INCLUDES BURN SCAR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
JEMEZ RANGES..AND IN SOUTHERN CATRON COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES WEST INTO THE STATE AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE HIGHEST OVER THE BURN SCARS ON MONDAY. A WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL UNFOLD NEXT WEEK AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY
PERSIST WELL BEYOND MONDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
RAINFALL IMPACTS...AND OBSERVED HAIL SIZES THROUGH THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY
CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

11