Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS ANOTHER LARGE CROP OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO TONIGHT. MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. IT MAY SQUEEZE INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING US THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE. IT WILL FINALLY DEPART ON MONDAY BUT
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ON THE SATURATED
GROUND.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE WITH A FAIRLY
ACTIVE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY PM AND EVENING.

MODELS ALL SHOWING A TROUGH SWINGING BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
SIX DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE TREND TO DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WEST.  ALL STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NE NM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM.  AS WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME...WETTING RAINS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY WITH
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS...RATHER THAN BASIN-WIDE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE TROPICAL REGIME LAST WEEK. NOT SURPRISINGLY...EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE ON TAP AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE THE DRYING TREND IS GOING TO BE EXTREMELY SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS A FEW
MORE DEGREES. A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET INITIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN
THE DAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH
BECOME LESS DEFINED...BUT THE WESTERLIES WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
YET TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE. PARTS OF FAR NW NM MAY START
TO DRY OUT A LITTLE...BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS NOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS AGAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW.

THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST AREAS MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY BE
ENOUGH TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE FROM THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE FAIR TO GOOD ON MONDAY...BUT WILL IMPROVE
BEYOND MONDAY INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORIES. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SCT-NUM
STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND LOW CIGS/VSBY LIKELY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...
ABQ/AEG AND LVS TAF SITES APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NE NM WILL ALSO
INCREASE STORM CHANCES FROM RTN TO CAO...BUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE STATE WILL HAVE TS CHANCES TODAY. MT TOPS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  82  57  80 /  30  20  10  10
DULCE...........................  46  77  46  77 /  40  30  20  20
CUBA............................  49  78  49  79 /  40  30  20  30
GALLUP..........................  50  78  50  77 /  30  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  46  74  45  74 /  30  30  20  20
GRANTS..........................  48  77  48  77 /  30  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  50  79  50  79 /  30  30  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  54  81  54  82 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  44  69  44  69 /  50  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  73  53  75 /  40  30  20  30
PECOS...........................  51  68  52  70 /  50  40  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  72  48  73 /  60  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  44  65 /  70  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  67  37  68 /  70  50  30  30
TAOS............................  47  74  45  74 /  40  40  20  20
MORA............................  47  68  46  71 /  70  50  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  79  52  80 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  52  73  51  74 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  75  54  77 /  40  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  79  58  80 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  79  61  80 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  81  60  82 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  83  59  84 /  30  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  81  58  82 /  30  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  58  82  58  82 /  30  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  60  84  61  84 /  30  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  78  55  78 /  40  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  55  75  56  76 /  40  30  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  73  51  74 /  50  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  71  51  71 /  50  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  75  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  77  57  76 /  30  20  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  53  70  53  68 /  30  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  49  71  50  78 /  60  50  20  20
RATON...........................  50  75  50  79 /  60  50  20  10
SPRINGER........................  51  76  51  80 /  60  50  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  71  50  74 /  60  50  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  55  77  58  82 /  60  30  20  10
ROY.............................  56  75  55  76 /  60  40  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  59  80  61  82 /  60  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  57  77  59  79 /  50  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  82  63  86 /  50  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  60  81  61  81 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  81  60  81 /  20  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  81  60  82 /  30  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  63  85  62  84 /  20  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  56  78  58  77 /  20  20  20  30
ELK.............................  54  72  55  71 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-506>533.

&&

40