Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Albuquerque, NM

727 
WGUS75 KABQ 090115
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMC053-090200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130709T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOCORRO-
715 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTY...

AT 714 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NEAR 
LEMITAR...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF SOCORRO. RADAR HAS INDICATED 
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF 
HIGHWAY 408 WITH THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS 
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.  

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SAN ACACIA...
  CHAMIZAL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MANY
FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10694 3427 10693 3427 10679 3413 10682
      3412 10693

$$


34

869 
WGUS75 KABQ 090150
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
750 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMC053-090201-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130709T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOCORRO-
750 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO
COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS 
ENDING BETWEEN SAN ACACIA AND LEMITAR...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT 
WAS DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT 
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3419 10694 3427 10693 3427 10679 3413 10682
      3412 10693

$$


34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH 09/12Z WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. TSRA
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO WILL PERSIST
AND MOVE SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY THROUGH 03Z AS THEY
SLOWLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH MTS WILL BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED IN THE STRONGER STORMS IN
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KT. AFT 06Z SHRA MAY BE ISOLD
OVR NRN AND CENTRAL NM AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS A BIT
NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM
NEAR ALBUQUERQUE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
TUESDAY...THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WOBBLING AROUND NE NM AND W KS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT WITH TIME.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN STRENGTH AS IT MIGRATES TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO
CAP SOME OF THE CONVECTION THERE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE THUNDERSTORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE STATE TO MORE OF A NE TO SW DIRECTION BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN E TO W BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ENABLE STORMS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AFFECTING ALBUQUERQUE AND POINTS SOUTH BEGINNING TODAY...AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SANTA FE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY...THEN EVEN
FARTHER NORTH TO AROUND TAOS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE NE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR THE
NE TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER HIGH...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A
FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAYS READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS ACROSS THE NE DUE TO THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 500 MB SHIFTED MAINLY NE OF NM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO
THE MOISTURE AND PRESSURE PATTERN WITH NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL READINGS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AND READINGS AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TX ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE SIGNALING OUR FIRST MONSOON BURST OF THE
SEASON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY IN
WESTERN AREAS AS THIS WAVE AND ATTENDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CROSSES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MAKING IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH SOME CHANGES TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST.

ABOVE NORMAL PWATS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST WITH SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERIES
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT STEERING FLOW MEANS THAT WETTING
RAINS ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE AREAS THAT GET RAIN. BY FRIDAY...THE
UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRY/WARM AIR
UNDERCUTTING IT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM. A MONSOONAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...SO CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. EASTERN AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME DRYING WITH MINIMUM RHS TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND MAKES WAY FOR A CLOSED
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGES. THIS UPTICK POTENTIALLY
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE UPPER
HIGH DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE STATE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMZ501>540-091200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
522 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY MAY PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SOME SMALL HAIL. DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BURN SCAR AREAS OF
CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...RAINFALL
IMPACTS...AND OBSERVED HAIL SIZES THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
151 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMZ513-515-082015-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS
ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
151 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN TAOS AND WESTERN
COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

AT 151 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...OR ABOUT 23
MILES EAST OF QUESTA.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELIZABETHTOWN AND EAGLE NEST.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 10499 3653 10526 3670 10531 3677 10523
      3680 10509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 344DEG 2KT 3669 10517

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
228 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMZ515-527-082115-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
228 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLFAX COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM MDT...

AT 224 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTE PARK...OR ABOUT 29
MILES WEST OF RATON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
COLFAX COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 10475 3665 10477 3671 10507 3689 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 285DEG 8KT 3681 10495

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMZ519-521-082130-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-SANDIA/MANZANO
MOUNTAINS-
259 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BERNALILLO COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

AT 255 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEDAR CREST...OR ABOUT 13 MILES EAST OF
ALBUQUERQUE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALBUQUERQUE...SANDIA HEIGHTS
AND CARNUEL.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 10649 3519 10654 3522 10631 3504 10627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 078DEG 7KT 3511 10640

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
407 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

NMZ512-518-082230-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
407 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

AT 407 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANTA FE.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. HAIL MAY COVER THE
GROUND.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANTA FE AND GLORIETA.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 10573 3545 10605 3571 10609 3576 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 343DEG 2KT 3565 10595

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MDT MON JUL 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S SANTA FE            35.65N 105.95W
07/08/2013                   SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER ON SOME ROADS ON SOUTH SIDE OF
            TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301224

CHJ