Areal Flood Advisory 607, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN PLUME/AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM ERN SOCORRO
COUNTY NEWD INTO HARDING AND UNION COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE PLUME AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK WWD LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OVER WRN NM SO NOT EXPECTING WDSPRD FOG BUT PATCHY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KGUP AROUND SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING FOG FORMATION PATCHY.
-SHRAS/-TSRAS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CNTL MTN CHAIN THURSDAY FORENOON. MTN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WITH
SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013...
...WET WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...

PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF CWA AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 AND EVEN 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME FLOODING ISSUES
ONGOING...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE PECOS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY OVER THAT PART OF THE
STATE.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO REV UP OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF...DESPITE
THE DRYING ALOFT OBSERVED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CELLS JUST NOW GETTING STARTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SOME
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ALTHOUGH LINCOLN COUNTY HAS BEEN RECEIVING
OCCASIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TODAY. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL GET MORE ACTIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE PLUME SHIFTS WWD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
IN A MORE SW TO NE DIRECTION OVER THE STATE. MEANWHILE THE H5 UPPER
LOW CENTER OVER SE NV AT 20Z DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO SW UT OR REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT ENERGY PERIODICALLY ROTS AROUND IT AND OVER
WRN/CNTRL NM. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AT THE SAME
TIME MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND WWD TO THE CONTDVD. IN
FACT IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER WET FOR THESE
AREAS...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A RECONFIGURED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND RESULTING
FLOODING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGS
ITSELF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE. THIS KEEPS POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD WITH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOMING APPARENT...BUT THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND LESS SHARP TROUGH...FAVORS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO
HALF OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION. SOME DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN POTENTIALLY A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. MONSOONAL PLUME
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. WEATHER MODELS STILL
BULLISH WITH BRINGING THIS MONSOONAL PLUME BACK TO THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT AND PLACING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS ON THURSDAY. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE FAVORED ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN AND UNUSUALLY
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREAL ALTHOUGH WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIFT DYNAMICS
WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO AND FAVOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN WHERE THEY THINK THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR
BUT PLAN ON NUMEROUS WETTING RAIN CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT THINKING QUITE AS MUCH AS WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY
THOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE
TRAPPED WITHIN THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE NORTH SATURDAY
WITH LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO INFILTRATE IN
FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY MOST AREAS
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY BUT
MORE SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND DOWN A LITTLE
BIT BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEATHER MODELS ARE STILL PICKING UP ON A MORE DOMINANT PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR VIA A
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND INTRUSION WOULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE
FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM. SOME BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS BASED ON THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODELS SHOWS LESS DRYING
VERSUS THE GFS. THE GFS PREDICTED THE CURRENT SYSTEM BETTER IN THE 4
TO 6 DAY PERIOD SO PUTTING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE WESTERN US...SOME MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
BACK UP FROM MEXICO AND FUEL A FEW STORMS MID WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-511>518-520>533.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ534>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-507-510-519.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
508 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2013

NMZ501>540-121115-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
508 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE BURN SCARS IN THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...GILA MOUNTAINS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE BURN SCARS IN THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...GILA MOUNTAINS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013

NMZ512-518-112230-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
406 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

AT 401 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAMY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF SANTA
FE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
SANTA FE COUNTY.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 10597 3561 10577 3542 10587 3546 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 191DEG 9KT 3552 10592

SHOEMAKE