Winter Storm Watch 10, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
355 AM PDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIE BETWEEN STORMS TODAY AS ONE
EXITS EAST ACROSS UTAH WHILE A MUCH COLDER LOW LIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL
BRING...GUSTY WINDS...EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT
BEFORE THAT...TODAY SHOULD NOT BE TO BAD...ALL BE IT ON THE BREEZY
AND COOL SIDE. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN CALIFORNIA AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OF INYO COUNTY.
WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF
FORECAST BETWEEN 0.60 AND 1.00 INCH LIQUID NEAR ASPENDELL CA BETWEEN
5 AM AND 10 PM FRIDAY. NEXT CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND THE MORONGO BASIN. 4KM
NMM MODEL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DOWNSLOPING AT TIMES IN THE
MORONGO BASIN. WINDS LOOK STRONG FOR PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL.
HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. GFS QUITE BULLISH
DEVELOPING SEVERAL BANDS OF DECENT QPF OVER THE AREA. ONE BAND
DEVELOPS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SYSTEM COLD ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF THAT WOULD BE FALLING AS
SNOW. NOT ALL MODELS ON BOARD WITH SIMILAR PLACEMENT YET...SO AGAIN
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATER SHIFTS FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM RECORD TEMPERATURES BEING TIED
OR BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
TO NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE AGREED
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA AND HAVE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z AND
THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10K FEET TODAY. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-35KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
30KTS OVER MOST AREAS. CLOUDS FEW-SCT080-100...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA.
LOW CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ523-525.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ519.
&&

PIERCE/GORELOW

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