Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT.
SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.

EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM....CARPENTER
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-231300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1115 AM MDT (1215 PM CDT) FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAITH TO
BELLE FOURCHE TO GILLETTE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHARPS CORNER           43.38N 102.40W
06/22/2012  E60 MPH          SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
903 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             MOORCROFT               44.27N 104.95W
06/22/2012  E2.75 INCH       CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
945 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SDZ042-044-230430-
BENNETT SD-SHANNON SD-
945 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENNETT AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 944 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINE RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PINE RIDGE...
  WOUNDED KNEE...
  BATESLAND...
  SWETT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4318 10276 4328 10194 4299 10194 4300 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 265DEG 35KT 4309 10262

CALDERON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
955 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N HULETT              44.74N 104.60W
06/22/2012  E60 MPH          CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
956 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             UPTON                   44.10N 104.63W
06/22/2012  E1.50 INCH       WESTON             WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
959 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE PORCUPINE          43.29N 102.27W
06/22/2012  M59 MPH          SHANNON            SD   MESONET

&&

ME