Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
551 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS
THROUGH THIS EVNG. ON THE LARGER SCALE...THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AT ABOUT
ANY TIME. THE BEST CHANCE...HOWEVER...WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLKHLS AND EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT
APROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MT/WRN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH THE
BLKHLS AND INTO SCNTRL SD. MLCAPES HAVE RISE TO AROUND 1500J/KG
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MOIST NE/E UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IN THE 35-50KT RANGE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT SOME SVR STORMS. ORDINARY STORM MOTIONS QUITE SLOW...AND
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOME HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY. STORM MOTIONS FOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FASTER.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
SERN ALTA/SRN SASK WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SEWD ACRS THE CWFA.
THIS COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MORE
POTENTIAL SVR STORMS. PCPN COULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD LATE
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING GIVEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.

WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BUT THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...DURING THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE CENTER PART OF THE
COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS BEFORE BY THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THE PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION. MOSTLY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...BUNKERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
509 AM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-241300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
509 AM MDT (609 AM CDT) MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS
INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
621 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             5 SW ELM SPRINGS        44.26N 102.60W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       MEADE              SD   PUBLIC

&&

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
622 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW ELM SPRINGS        44.26N 102.60W
07/23/2012  E60 MPH          MEADE              SD   PUBLIC

&&

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
639 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE MUD BUTTE          44.93N 102.77W
07/23/2012  E60 MPH          MEADE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
732 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNION CENTER            44.56N 102.67W
07/23/2012  M59 MPH          MEADE              SD   MESONET

            REPORTED BY SDSU AG WEATHER MESONET.

&&

BUNKERS