Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
456 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS THUNDERSTORMS GOING UP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH
SOME SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. MORNING SOUNDING HAD 1.37 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH IS +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF AVERAGE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DON/T ANTICIPATING NEEDING ANY KIND OF
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES...SINCE NUMEROUS CREEKS AND PONDS ARE VERY
LOW...WATER WILL HAVE A PLACE TO GO. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BESIDES HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...STORMS
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 700 MB HEIGHT THETA-E RIDGE WHICH IS WHERE
THE CONVECTION IS NOW FIRING.

EXPECT NEARLY ALL ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WED MORNING.
HOWEVER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT AT
THIS TIME...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY KEEP SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS...THUS EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA.

EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN
THE 90S WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-SHANNON-
JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /223 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
649 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ049-180145-
TRIPP SD-
749 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TRIPP COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEARFIELD...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINNER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARTER...
  WITTEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 10022 4333 10022 4343 10021 4344 10022
      4347 10022 4346 9983 4316 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 186DEG 10KT 4326 10009

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
700 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 SSW HILL CITY         43.91N 103.59W
07/17/2012  E1.00 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
718 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ029-180200-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-
718 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM MDT...

AT 715 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JEWEL CAVE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN
CUSTER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DOWNTOWN CUSTER...
  JEWEL CAVE...
  SANATOR...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 10355 4354 10364 4365 10400 4382 10394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 285DEG 5KT 4371 10385

CALDERON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
812 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 WNW HOOVER           45.20N 103.59W
07/17/2012  E60.00 MPH       BUTTE              SD   PUBLIC

0716 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOOVER                  45.11N 103.27W
07/17/2012  E60.00 MPH       BUTTE              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 PM     HAIL             2 W HAYWARD             43.87N 103.38W
07/17/2012  E0.50 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM     HAIL             2 SSE JEWEL CAVE        43.71N 103.82W
07/17/2012  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             SD   PUBLIC

&&

KCLARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
822 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N RALPH               45.79N 103.07W
07/17/2012  E60 MPH          HARDING            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH