Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCT HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY CONTAIN ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN PICK
BACK UP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. DEEP MIXING AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN SOME DRY LIGHTNING.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TROF
SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON
SUNDAY. AREAS ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 105-110F. WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITS JUST EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER CONDITION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
LIGHTNING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S AGAIN...AND EASILY CRACK
THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE VERY POOR...AND MINIMUM
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY...AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN BLACK
     HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR BENNETT-HAAKON-JACKSON-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
     ZIEBACH.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BADLANDS AREA-
     CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
     PLAINS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYOMING BLACK
     HILLS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
     CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN
     CAMPBELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...JOHNSON

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