Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
BLKHLS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MEAN UPPER TROF EXTENDING THROUGH
THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES WITHS SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS. ONE VORT MAX IS SEEN ALONG THE WRN SD/NEB BORDER...WITH
MORE SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ACRS UT AND WY. AT THE
SFC...WEAK LOW CENTER IS OVER FAR SWRN SD WITH TROF EXTENDING NWD
THRU WRN SD. A SVR TSTM HAS ERUPTED IN AN AREA OF LEE SIDE
CONVERGENCE IN THE SWRN BLKHLS.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER AS WELL AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
ACROSS OUR CWFA. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXTEND FROM THE
BLKHLS EWD THROUGH WRN SD WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SUNDAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THERMAL RIDGE NUDGING
INTO ERN WY. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO OUR WRN
CWFA BY LATE AFTN WITH A SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SOME
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR THE SFC TROF...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 16-17C
AND HIGHER WILL KEEP TSTM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM.

MONDAY...SFC TROF WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWFA WITH THE ONLY
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG THE TROF WHEN IT REACHES SCNTRL
SD DURING PEAK HEATING. VERY LITTLE COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC TROF SO ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED. HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLKHLS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM. PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE
BRINGING NEAR DAILY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR -TSRA TO VARYING PARTS OF
THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S...THEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN
     CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
600 AM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-011300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
600 AM MDT (700 AM CDT) SAT JUN 30 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PHILIP TO PINE RIDGE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO UNDER 10 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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