High Wind Warning 6, NWS Rapid City, SD

423 
WWUS73 KUNR 122009
NPWUNR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

WYZ054-055-122115-
/O.CAN.KUNR.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120412T2100Z/
NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GILLETTE...WRIGHT
209 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST WYOMING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
315 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SD TO OK AND CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY E WD. DEEP...COMPLEX LONG WAVE TROF IS ALONG THE W
COAST OF U.S. ONE MAJOR SHORT WAVE IS OVER NV WITH AN UPSTREAM
KICKER OVER THE N PACIFIC NEAR 140W. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORT
WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THESE WAVES.

AT 06Z SFC LOW PRESSURE LIES FROM CNTRL MT TO CNTRL WY WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS FCST TO
MOVE NE WD WITH A FRONT AND SHARP TROF MOVING E WD ACROSS THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY AND THIS EVG. LATEST NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.

HRRR MODEL SHOWS A NW/SE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING NE WD ACROSS
WRN SD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BAND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY
TIED TO A BAND OF 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWN IN THE NAM80
PROGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. WHILE THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS WAVE DURING MID-DAY
TODAY...IT IS FOLLOWED VERY QUICKLY BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
SOME ASCENT. SO SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

06Z NAM IS SHOWING MORE FORCING FOR DESCENT ON FRIDAY OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MODEST INDICATIONS OF ASCENT OVER THE
NW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION OF THESE DETAILS...KEPT
CHANCE NW AND SLIGHT CHANCE SE POPS IN PLACE. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES ON SAT WITH BROADER AREA OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATING GOOD ASCENT AND MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UT/CO
BORDER AT 00Z SUN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
TODAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SWRN NEBRASKA BY 18Z SUNDAY...THEN
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THAT WILL CREATE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE
OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF FORECAST
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. MVFR
CIGS WILL THEN REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
923 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-131300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
923 AM MDT (1023 AM CDT) THU APR 12 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 3 PM FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY WYOMING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
927 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 NNE ECHETA            44.46N 105.84W
04/12/2012  M40 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   OTHER FEDERAL

0751 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE ECHETA            44.46N 105.84W
04/12/2012  M58 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   OTHER FEDERAL

0838 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.36N 105.53W
04/12/2012  M59 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   ASOS

0851 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 NNE ECHETA            44.46N 105.84W
04/12/2012  M41 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

MLS