Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING
BEFORE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL BRING A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST OF SELLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKING AT THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BEING
ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES INITIALLY...THEN
IMPACTING WESTERN PIMA. THE GREATER TUCSON AREA WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO THE
EAST AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. ALSO...IT APPEARED THAT
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. AFTER
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRYING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE A PROLONG DOWN PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES TO A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...WILL CALL FOR LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THEN INCREASE POP VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST CALL FOR A STANDARD POP FORECAST AFTER
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY...WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER WESTERN
DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN 100-120 WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DVLPG THRU
07/06Z. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...THOUGH MAIN STORY WILL BE THE MODEST DRYING
TREND AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
CONTINUING TO DROP BELOW VALUES SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
REPOSITIONS OVER NRN AZ.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ503>505-514-070400-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-515-070400-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS AROUND SELLS AND AJO COULD BE HIT THE
HARDEST...WITH POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ506>513-070400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WILL RESULT IN LESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW STRAY STORMS DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
552 PM MST MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELLS                   31.92N 111.88W
08/06/2012                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE POWER POLES DOWN IN SELLS

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200049

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
554 PM MST MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW THREE POINTS      32.00N 111.30W
08/06/2012                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGE IN DIAMOND BELL RANCH...NUMEROUS SHEDS
            DAMAGED...8 INCH BRICK WALL ON CAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200050

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
657 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ504-514-070245-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
657 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
MST...

AT 649 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARANA...MOVING WEST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARANA...AVRA VALLEY AND
PICTURE ROCKS.

LAT...LON 3233 11145 3250 11142 3251 11085 3231 11092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 102DEG 17KT 3239 11114

GL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
737 PM MST MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELLS                   31.92N 111.88W
08/06/2012                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES BROKEN IN HALF... AT BIGFIELDS 7
            HOMES DAMAGED... POWER OUT FOR 20 MILE RADIUS... NO
            INJURIES

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200051

RH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
817 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ505-070345-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ-
817 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM MST...

AT 809 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVRA VALLEY...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MARANA...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FRIENDLY CORNERS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3261 11173 3263 11131 3250 11120 3251 11173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 111DEG 16KT 3253 11143

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
922 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ503-513-070515-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
922 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM MST...

AT 914 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF NOGALES...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOGALES...KINO SPRINGS...
PATAGONIA LAKE...RIO RICO...TUMACACORI AND PENA BLANCA LAKE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3133 11111 3134 11112 3159 11113 3159 11061
      3132 11061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 086DEG 18KT 3140 11076

GL