Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING
BEFORE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL BRING A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST OF SELLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKING AT THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BEING
ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES INITIALLY...THEN
IMPACTING WESTERN PIMA. THE GREATER TUCSON AREA WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO THE
EAST AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. ALSO...IT APPEARED THAT
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. AFTER
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRYING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE A PROLONG DOWN PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES TO A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...WILL CALL FOR LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THEN INCREASE POP VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST CALL FOR A STANDARD POP FORECAST AFTER
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY...WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER WESTERN
DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN 100-120 WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DVLPG THRU
07/06Z. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...THOUGH MAIN STORY WILL BE THE MODEST DRYING
TREND AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
CONTINUING TO DROP BELOW VALUES SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
REPOSITIONS OVER NRN AZ.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ503>505-514-070400-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-515-070400-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS AROUND SELLS AND AJO COULD BE HIT THE
HARDEST...WITH POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ506>513-070400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
1008 AM MST MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WILL RESULT IN LESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW STRAY STORMS DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

AZZ502-503-515-062215-
BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KITT PEAK AZ-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION
INCLUDING SELLS AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING
NOGALES AZ-
223 PM MST MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
MST...

AT 216 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF SELLS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SELLS...LITTLE TUCSON...
ARTESA...COWLIC AND SAN ISIDRO.

LAT...LON 3186 11210 3205 11173 3177 11146 3163 11187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 139DEG 14KT 3181 11187

SMR