Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AND A STRONG IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND PRIMED FOR A BUSY DAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...USING VARIOUS SOURCES...WERE BETWEEN 1.5" TO 1.9"
WITH THE DRIEST AIR NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING VALUE
OF 1.69" IS ALMOST TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. 9 AM
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...WITH SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO THERE WAS MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
WORK WITH THE MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT IS MIND AND THE FACT
THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING 1-3" OF RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...STARTING AT 12 NOON AND RUN IT OUT UNTIL
2 AM MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT NOT AS HIGH BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WET
MICROBURSTS PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE LIMIT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NMRS TSRA TODAY FROM 19Z THROUGH 30/07Z WITH
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TIL 30/18Z. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS 15-20KTS 29/19Z TIL
30/03Z AND SOME TSRA WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 45-50 KTS. ISOLD IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IN FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN DAILY ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM 12 NOON TODAY
   UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1023 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2012

AZZ501>515-300900-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1023 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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