Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY
FUELED BY RICH MOISTURE AND SPAWNED BY UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL LIKELY BE REPEATED SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HEALTHY CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED OVER SE
AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE.  A SERIES OF
RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD SPREAD STORMS NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING.  MID LEVEL WINDS OF 20-25 KTS SHOULD HELP
ORGANIZE CONVECTION MAKING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.  STORMS
ARE PRODUCING DECENT RAINFALL AS PER RADAR ESTIMATES...DESPITE
MOVING ALONG AT 15-20 MPH. THUS FAR...NOT GETTING A LOT OF TRAINING
EFFECTS FROM STORMS GOING OVER THE SAME AREAS...BUT WOULD EXPECT A
INCREASE IN THIS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR
LONGER DURATIONS LATER TODAY.  HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTFLOWS AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY HELP PERPETUATE
STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT ENTIRE AREA COULD ALSO SHIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY WEST.  SUBSEQUENT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THIS AS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY IF SIGNIFICANT RAINS WERE TO
EXTEND PAST EARLY EVENING.

SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
CROSS THE AREA.  OF COURSE LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS ALWAYS A THREAT
TO THWART ANY PARTICULAR DAYS RAIN IF HEATING IS SUPPRESSED.
ALSO...MODELS ARE STILL INTENT ON NOSING DRIER AIR INTO FAR EASTERN
AZ FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD DRYING OR SUPPRESSION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY...
WHEN UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD TOWARD AZ.  THIS IS REFLECTED
IN LOWER POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY SINCE HIGH USUALLY MOVES SLOWER AND
MOISTURE USUALLY TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK CORRESPOND WITH
THIS DRYING TREND.  EVEN WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE THAT FAR
OUT IS STILL LOW SINCE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...KD

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 29/03Z.
SOME TS WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT OBSCURATIONS AND WIND GUSTS
45-50 KTS. EXPECT TSRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE BECOMING
ISOLD 29/03Z THRU 29/18Z.  SCT TSRA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO SE AZ WILL
RESULT IN INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME HINT OF DRIER AIR NUDGING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
THUS...FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY SET UP FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY
MONDAY.  MORE WIDESPREAD DRIER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1122 AM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

AZZ501>515-290700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1122 AM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS...FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...WASHES AND LARGER STREAM
BEDS COULD FLOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND GUST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

REPORT STORM DAMAGE TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

AZZ507-509-511-282215-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-UPPER GILA
RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-UPPER SAN
PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
235 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MST...

AT 230 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLCOX...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KLONDYKE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3291 11043 3286 10994 3243 10996 3245 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 156DEG 19KT 3254 11019

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

AZZ503-513-282245-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
302 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MST...

AT 255 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF NOGALES NEAR
PATAGONIA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PATAGONIA LAKE AND RIO RICO.

LAT...LON 3147 11105 3172 11091 3154 11063 3139 11075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 124DEG 9KT 3152 11077

MEYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
329 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

AZZ502>504-282300-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
329 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
MST...

AT 324 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SAHUARITA...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...THREE POINTS AND RYAN FIELD.

LAT...LON 3182 11140 3226 11137 3194 11075 3178 11087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 125DEG 10KT 3195 11106

GL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
333 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

AZZ506-509-511-282315-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-SOUTHEAST
PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-UPPER GILA RIVER AND
ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-
333 PM MST SAT JUL 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PINAL AND WESTERN GRAHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MST...

AT 325 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR...OR 28
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLOBE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR.

LAT...LON 3316 11029 3300 11038 3304 11072 3307 11073
      3315 11061 3314 11059 3319 11051 3319 11048
      3320 11046 3320 11041 3324 11044 3327 11040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 117DEG 10KT 3312 11043

MEYER

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