Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EVEN WETTER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.7 (ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. MORE DEBRIS CLOUD HANGING ON THIS MORNING SO MOST LOCATIONS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SEE DIRECT HEATING THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...MID
LEVELS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE WITH H5 COMING IN AT -5 C ON THE 12Z
KTWC SOUNDING. DECENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ARGUES WE
SHOULD REFRESH ATMOSPHERE AND GET RID OF REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUD
PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION
BY 11 AM OR SO. BEST GUESS IS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING OUT OF NORTHERN
SONORA SHOULD HELP OVERCOME MODEST WARMING IN MID LEVELS BY NOON FOR
ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM12 ISN'T
HANDLING THE FIRST FEW HOURS VERY WELL. WE'LL LET THE HEAVY MONSOON
FORECAST STAND TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURSTS A
CONCERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PROVIDE DEEP GENERALLY SELY FLOW ACROSS SE AZ THRU TUE. SERIES
OF IMPULSES MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PRECIP CHANCES TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT WED-THUR AS UPPER
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER SRN NEVADA/SRN UTAH. HOWEVER...STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ BY SAT AS UPPER
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGS BELOW CLIMO MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSRA/SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN ISOLD
-TSRA/-SHRA 06Z-12Z MONDAY. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY MORNING OR 23/15Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEYER/BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

AZZ501>515-231645-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
936 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAIN
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
957 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SAHUARITA         31.99N 110.97W
07/21/2012                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWNED...TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

0231 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE TUCSON            32.23N 110.90W
07/21/2012                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE CATALINA FOOTHILLS 32.26N 110.84W
07/21/2012                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            E SHORELINE DRIVE AND N SABINO CANYON ROAD...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200035 TWC1200036 TWC1200037

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1144 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

AZZ503-507-513-221915-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1144 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 1215 PM MST...

AT 1140 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SONOITA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3173 11078 3173 11051 3164 11051 3162 11073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 165DEG 6KT 3170 11065

MEYER