Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 21, 2012Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2012, 12:49 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2012, 12:49 PM MST (19:49 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2012, 1:30 PM MST
In force
41 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ

County Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 444 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
444 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1517 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 9:00 AM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 9:00 AM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY WET THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 (OVER 140 PERCENT OF CLIMO EVEN FOR LATE JULY) AND
SURFACE DEWPTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S (UP 3 OR 4 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS). LOTS OF DEBRIS OVERNIGHT BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION IN WESTERN AREAS WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MID TO LATE MORNING DEVELOPMENT A COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH A RATHER BUSY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEST ADJUSTMENTS IN FIRST AND EARLY SECOND PERIOD TRENDS
BASED ON PROMISING 12Z KTWC SOUNDING AS WELL AS EARLY NAM12 DATA.
GENERALLY INCREASED POP COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE IS FLOW IS BRISK ENOUGH ALONG WITH
EASTERLY WAVE INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER BUSY DAY...MAYBE BUSIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST
TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THERE REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE JUST HOW MUCH DRYING BUT WE SHOULD SEE A LOWER GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KTS AND SCT-BKN 060 CONTINUING INTO
EVENING HOURS OR 22/04Z. DECREASING SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUD LATE
NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY MORNING OR 22/16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
FRIDAY WAS 0.56". THUS THE MONSOON RAINFALL TOTAL IS UP TO
4.41"...WHICH RANKS AS THE 2ND WETTEST MONSOON TO DATE. THE TOTAL
FOR JULY IS UP TO 4.07" WHICH RANKS AS 2ND WETTEST TO DATE AND 12TH
WETTEST FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF JULY. LASTLY...THE 2012 TOTAL IS UP TO
5.09" WHICH TIES FOR THE 34TH WETTEST TO DATE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 7:50 AM MST, 4 hours 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
750 AM MST SAT JUL 21 2012

AZZ501>515-221500-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
750 AM MST SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAIN
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY. THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL DECLINE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 12:49 PM MST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2012

AZZ503-504-513-212030-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1249 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND NORTHERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

AT 1245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUBAC...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GREEN VALLEY...AMADO AND
ARIVACA JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3161 11124 3192 11105 3176 11089 3159 11097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 113DEG 13KT 3171 11103

MEYER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 5:26 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima94 min
Jul 21, 12:56 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima, Santa Cruz34 min
Jul 21, 1:43 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima, Santa Cruz2 hr
Jul 21, 1:53 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima112 min
Jul 21, 2:26 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCGraham2 hr
Jul 21, 2:27 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima33 min
Jul 21, 3:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima44 min
Jul 21, 3:05 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima40 min
Jul 21, 3:25 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPinal50 min
Jul 21, 3:36 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGraham, Pinal39 min
Jul 21, 3:38 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima58 min
Jul 21, 4:07 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPinal83 min
Jul 21, 4:11 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPinal79 min
Jul 21, 4:27 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima, Pinal108 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.