Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tucson, AZ

797 
WWUS55 KTWC 142126
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
226 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

AZC019-142145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-120814T2145Z/
PIMA AZ-
226 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 218 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARIVACA ALONG ARIVACA ROAD...OR 17 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREEN VALLEY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LAT...LON 3155 11145 3191 11139 3191 11110 3173 11117
      3156 11118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 102DEG 2KT 3169 11123

$$

GL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
932 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK WITH A GRADUAL TREND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH
SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE
ARE STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND IN
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH ANY LUCK.  HOWEVER IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN BY LATE MORNING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING
ANY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ESPECIALLY SINCE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY
WEST OF TUCSON ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALREADY.

THE REASON FOR THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OUT WEST IS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION JUST
NOW DWINDLING OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

WHILE THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER 24 HOURS
AGO...THE OVERALL SOUNDING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
NICE INVERTED V SIGNATURE CORRESPONDING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE AS INDICATED
BY VARIOUS INDICES.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT NOT AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS DAMAGING WINDS ARE BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/PWAT DO CLIMB FROM 1-1.25 INCHES TO 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES AS PER FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
WEST.  THUS A SLOW MOVING STORM OR REPEATED STORMS COULD CAUSE
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

MESOSCALE MODELS EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE
FORECASTS THRU THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY FORECAST IN
MOST PARTS OF SE AZ.  HOWEVER ALL DO AGREE ON A GENERAL FOCUS IN
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AFTER CONSIDERING THE ABOVE
ANALYSIS...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A
NW-SE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO WEST TEXAS BY
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  THIS PATTERN PLACES SE AZ IN A MOIST SE
FLOW. THUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK.  AS MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
INCREASE. THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CORRESPOND
WITH MORE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES...KD

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER WRN PIMA
COUNTY...THEN SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING AFT 14/19Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR STRONGER TSRA AND WIND GUSTS 45 TO 50 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
14/17Z...THEN WLY/NWLY AT 8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND
LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 15/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN START WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DAYTIME
READINGS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...ANOTHER RECORD HIGH IS FORECAST TO FALL AT TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 107 DEGREES. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE BE THE 9TH STRAIGHT DAY WITH A HIGH OF 105 DEGREES OR
GREATER...WHICH IS ONE DAY SHY OF THE AUGUST RECORD OF 10 DAYS SET
IN 1995.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

KD/GL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
810 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

AZZ501>515-150700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
810 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS BELOW 3000 FEET TODAY.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS FORECAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65
MPH...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
LOCATIONS THAT GET HIT BY A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OR BY MORE
THAN ONE THUNDERSTORM COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 103 AND
108 ARE FORECAST BELOW 3000 FEET...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN
CLOSER TO MID AUGUST AVERAGES THE REST OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FROM GUSTY WINDS TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

AZZ503-504-142100-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER
SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
135 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
MST...

AT 130 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
PIMA COUNTY. GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD REACH HIGHWAY 286
MIDWAY BETWEEN THREE POINTS AND SASABE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3169 11132 3188 11145 3199 11120 3183 11109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 059DEG 5KT 3186 11123

KD