Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

194 
WGUS65 KTWC 172340
FFATWC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
440 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2012

AZZ501>508-512>515-180045-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120818T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AJO...NOGALES...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...
MARANA...VAIL...PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK...MAMMOTH...ORACLE...
SIERRA VISTA...BENSON...WILLCOX...CHIRICAHUA NM...BISBEE...
CANELO HILLS...MADERA CANYON...MOUNT LEMMON...SUMMERHAVEN
440 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED. THUS...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
856 AM MST FRI AUG 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LATEST GPS PW VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.75 INCHES TO 2 INCHES. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SOME BREAKS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER LATEST KEMX RADAR IMAGERY.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BASED ON THE 12Z
KTWC SOUNDING...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE TROPICAL SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
THE MOISTURE IS QUITE TROPICAL...WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS QUICKLY DEVELOPING EVEN WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...DON'T
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME SUCH THAT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. THIS WILL BE MONITORED DURING
THE DAY THOUGH AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WE SEE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO BEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT OF WHICH THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY TO
INCREASE POPS GIVEN THE BETTER AREAL COVERAGE AND TO LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY.

STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR
PRETTY GOOD STORM COVERAGE. MOISTURE VALUES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
LOWER THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA TODAY. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
THIS EVENING OR 18/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 17 2012

AZZ501>515-180600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
930 AM MST FRI AUG 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING
TREND BUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON