Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
226 PM MST SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN NON-SHELTERED AREAS...WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED RATHER EXTENSIVE
TODAY...BUT THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE MANAGED TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE LACK OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES WERE STILL APPROACHING
PROJECTED HIGHS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD. OUT EAST...COLD AIR WAS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AT
SAFFORD AND DOUGLAS AT 1 PM MST.

A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BAJA WAS HELPING PRODUCE THE
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AS EXPECTED. STILL ANTICIPATING
THIS GENERAL AREA TO SEE THE BULK OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WAS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST TO
A POSITION OVER YUMA BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ON TUESDAY. RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT...SO THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF
RAIN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY 6-10K FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. BREEZY ELY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 12-22 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT 09/03Z FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT
KTUS. OTHERWISE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
GRADUALLY REDUCING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
838 AM MST SAT SEP 8 2012

AZZ501>515-090600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
838 AM MST SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
ITS WAY IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 PM MST SAT SEP 8 2012

AZZ502-082200-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
227 PM MST SAT SEP 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MST...

AT 222 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SELLS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE AND COVERED
WELLS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3196 11227 3222 11218 3216 11177 3197 11179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 119DEG 4KT 3206 11202

GL