Areal Flood Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON SEP 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINERS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH AREAS WEST OF TUCSON
GETTING HIT THE HARDEST. ONCE AGAIN CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IS SEEING
THE BULK OF RAIN WHICH HAS KEPT HEAVY FLOWS CONTINUING IN WASHES AND
STREAMS. CHECK HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

UPPER LOW SW OF TUCSON HAS PROVIDED THE DYNAMICS FOR THE STORMS
TODAY. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TS CONTINUING WEST OF
TUCSON OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH OCCURRING ELSEWHERE BUT COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OVER
THE AREA. MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE VAMORI WASH NEAR KOM VO IN CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
REMAINS ABOVE BANKFULL. DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THIS AREA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 645 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND WASHES WERE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FLOWS
ACROSS THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM KTUS WESTWARD WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH -TSRA.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
857 AM MST MON SEP 10 2012

AZZ501>515-110600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
857 AM MST MON SEP 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY
FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE TUCSON
AREA WESTWARD. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY RESULTING
IN CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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