Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SURPRISES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO HEAT UP THROUGH THE DECAYING DEBRIS CLOUD. MUCH BETTER
SOLAR INSOLATION IN FAR EASTERN AREAS BUT ALSO NOT AS WET AND 12K
KTUS SOUNDING WAS SHOWING H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -5C...A TOUCH WARMER
THAN YOU WANT FOR GOOD CONVECTION. SO FAR THIS HAS PROVED FAIRLY
ACCURATE AS OF 2 PM WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF TUCSON METRO AREA. THE NICE MOISTURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EASTERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY (GOES SOUNDER
ESTIMATES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE NEAR EASTERN PIMA DOWN TO ABOUT AN
INCH IN NEW MEXICO) HAS INDEED BEEN A FOCUS FOR INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS EXPECTED...BUT MODEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED DRYING IN EASTERLY FLOW HASN'T BROUGHT MUCH MORE TO
VALLEY LOCATIONS THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE PHASES EASTWARD WE SHOULD SEE MORE COVERAGE THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STILL EMPHASIZING WESTERN
AREAS FRIDAY...BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY STILL SEE RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVELS AND WEAKER FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

STILL THINKING THAT LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL MAKE WAY FOR STRONG
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDER THE RIDGE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK. LONG FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA
DEVELOPING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KFHU...TO KTUS...TO KCGZ LINE.
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGEST TSRA. DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AFT 13/05Z AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS. SELY/SLY SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS THRU 13/02Z...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 13/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG HEATING...AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

AZZ503-504-513-122315-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
325 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA AND NORTHERN SANTA
CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MST...

AT 320 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF TUBAC...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
GREEN VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ARIVACA JUNCTION AND AMADO.

LAT...LON 3171 11133 3188 11124 3176 11091 3158 11101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 098DEG 6KT 3171 11104

GL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
359 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

AZZ502>504-515-130000-
BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KITT PEAK AZ-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION
INCLUDING SELLS AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS
INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
359 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MST...

AT 354 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM EAST OF SANTA ROSA TO
SIL NAGGIA TO WEST OF KITT PEAK. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANTA ROSA...LITTLE TUCSON...
SAN ISIDRO...SANTA ROSA RANCH...COMOBABI...SIL NAGGIA...QUEENS
WELL...NOLIC...AK CHIN...SAN LUIS AND ANEGAM.

LAT...LON 3212 11210 3250 11212 3249 11179 3201 11139
      3170 11159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 129DEG 3KT 3203 11165

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
540 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

AZZ502-130115-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
540 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MST...

AT 533 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTH OF SANTA ROSA...OR 33 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CASA GRANDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3269 11216 3272 11216 3273 11215 3273 11206
      3277 11204 3277 11189 3280 11188 3280 11183
      3252 11186 3251 11219 3269 11220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 081DEG 7KT 3254 11214

GL