Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CAPES OVER 1500
AND WINDS ALOFT INDICATE SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT HELICITY VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD INDICATE THAT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING ECHOES. GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT...FEEL THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING AS
SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.

THE FRONT AND TROF MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START ENDING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN TO END
BY 7 AM SUNDAY.

COOL WEATHER ONLY LASTS BRIEFLY. ANOTHER H5 TROF COMES OVER THE
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING BACK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT. THIS WILL ALSO
EXIT QUICKLY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT BLENDED SOME
WITH THE ECMWF. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MEX MOS...AS IT
WAS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF MOS. ECMWF A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  80  53  81 / 100  10   0   0
FSM   64  83  52  80 / 100  10   0   0
MLC   61  82  52  82 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   59  80  46  82 / 100  10   0   0
FYV   63  76  45  76 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   62  76  49  76 / 100  10   0   0
MKO   61  80  51  80 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   59  77  49  79 / 100  10   0   0
F10   59  80  53  81 / 100   0   0   0
HHW   67  82  54  83 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
120 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON...GREATEST THREAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LONG DURATION SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END LATE TONIGHT AS STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED...INCLUDING SPOTTER ACTIVATION. PERSONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID
WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF SYSTEM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

OKZ059-064-132200-
CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
430 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND PAWNEE

AT 429 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF QUAY TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...
MARAMEC...WESTPORT...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON...SILVER CITY...
MANNFORD AND QUAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3631 9657 3622 9631 3588 9629 3578 9662
      3615 9663 3615 9682 3616 9683 3621 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 246DEG 45KT 3615 9675 3583 9672