Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CHANGES ARE A COMING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS HELD UP
FOR A TIME TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLED ON BY...IS NOW ON
THE MOVE. WIND GUSTS ARE TOPPING 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT...DUE TO
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. WILL LET
THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THRU 03Z AND LET THE EVENING
SHIFT ADJUST IF NEED BE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE SOARED
ONCE THE MID CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
INSOLATION. BRISTOW MESONET HAS HIT 108 DEGREES. MUCH OF EASTERN
OK IN FACT IS ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS HOUR. WILL LET THE HEAT
HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...AND WE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO
SHELVE THIS FOR AWHILE BY TONIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ORGANIZING INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS
AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A BAND OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LATER ON TONIGHT...AS STRONG MID LVL COLD FRONTOGENESIS
AND QG FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OK IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING SHEAR WITH TIME...SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF AN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT OR CLUSTER
CAN GET GOING IN THE HOT WARM SECTOR. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

SHOULD BE A VERY NICE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF NW AR. A
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE WARMING TREND IN CHECK
OVER NE OK AND NW AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THERE IS REASONABLE ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  53  88 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   61  81  54  88 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   60  81  54  89 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   54  81  51  88 /  50   0   0   0
FYV   55  76  48  84 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   54  75  49  81 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   57  80  53  86 /  60   0   0   0
MIO   55  78  53  82 /  70   0   0   0
F10   58  80  56  87 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   63  82  55  87 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ053.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1257 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES TEMPERATURES
OF 100 OR MORE WILL BE COMMON IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN THAT SAME AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR
WILL TRANSLATE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. ANY ONGOING FIRES WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN...AND A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
35 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR FOR A FEW HOURS. PLACES FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE
44 ON NORTH AND WEST WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST WIND.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MUCH MORE NUMEROUS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL STAND THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL A SECONDARY CONCERN. THE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL REMAIN ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR-MASS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF WILL CREATE AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT TUESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

OKZ054>056-072030-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA...NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 248 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEWEY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE INTENSIFYING
EAST OF PAWHUSKA...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9545 3659 9544 3659 9656 3699 9628
      3701 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 279DEG 23KT 3674 9587

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

OKZ060-066-067-070-072100-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
332 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND SOUTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HECTORVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HECTORVILLE...LEONARD...CHOSKA...PORTER...
STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...JAMESVILLE...TAFT AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3597 9548 3570 9551 3579 9598 3593 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 276DEG 26KT 3585 9589