Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROF STRETCHING FROM FAR
NW AR INTO CNTRL OK...WITH TRUE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WCNTRL OK. HAVE SEEN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY...WITH
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MEAGER...BUT HIGH INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG) WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS
WELL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO SE OK OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR THE
RED RIVER/NRN TX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
COMING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY S OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

CLOUD COVER/PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY BLENDED THE MET/MAV FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  87  64  86 /  50  20  50  30
FSM   72  92  69  88 /  50  30  60  40
MLC   70  92  67  88 /  50  40  60  40
BVO   64  87  59  87 /  40  20  40  20
FYV   66  86  61  85 /  60  20  40  30
BYV   65  85  60  82 /  60  20  30  20
MKO   69  90  64  88 /  50  30  60  40
MIO   66  86  61  84 /  50  20  20  20
F10   70  90  66  87 /  50  30  60  40
HHW   72  92  70  88 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TULSA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WIND
SHIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WANE SOMEWHAT TOWARD LATE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES JUST BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT LINE...WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 100...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAT...GUSTY WINDS...AND CONTINUED DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OUTFLOWS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A QUICK RISE IN WIND SPEED AS
WELL AS ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS THAT COULD CAUSE FIRE FIGHTING
ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL
ADVANCE THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
153 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

OKZ063-161930-
DELAWARE OK-
153 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL DELAWARE

AT 153 PM CDT...A SMALL BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
WEST OF COLCORD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COLCORD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3640 9460 3621 9457 3620 9457 3619 9479
      3629 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 254DEG 18KT 3626 9474

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

OKZ055-056-162015-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
238 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
DEWEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DELAWARE...BARTLESVILLE AND DEWEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3679 9559 3660 9575 3674 9600 3690 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 299DEG 15KT 3678 9585

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LEACH               36.20N 94.96W
08/16/2012  E60.00 MPH       DELAWARE           OK   PUBLIC

0203 PM     HAIL             2 W LEACH               36.20N 94.96W
08/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DECATUR                 36.34N 94.46W
08/16/2012                   BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGED TREES. ONE 12 INCH DIAMETER LIMB...30 FEET LONG
            HAD TO BE REMOVED FROM A STREET IN TOWN.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARZ001-002-OKZ063-162130-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-DELAWARE OK-
323 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL DELAWARE

AT 323 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF JAY TO 4 MILES WEST OF SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GATEWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...JAY...
COLCORD...MILLER...HILL TOP...BENTONVILLE...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
MAYSVILLE...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...GATEWAY...CHEROKEE CITY...
DECATUR...CENTERTON...AVOCA...HIWASSE...BELLA VISTA...GARFIELD...
BUSCH AND LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3646 9377 3636 9425 3623 9465 3629 9495
      3636 9501 3641 9500 3653 9461 3651 9461
      3651 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 303DEG 14KT 3637 9496 3649 9452
          3656 9404