Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-130945-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF A MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE RAISED. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN TWO MAIN AREAS. STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER ON.
IN ADDITION...DATA INDICATES THAT A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE OVER
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. ANY
STORM WHICH FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CARRY A RISK OF
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104 RANGE ARE
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON ON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY. DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY THAT IS PRODUCED FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

OKZ049-130100-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
714 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 715 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MOYERS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ANTLERS...DELA...MOYERS...FINLEY...
KOSOMA...KELLOND...EUBANKS AND DUNBAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3427 9579 3450 9579 3451 9578 3451 9568
      3452 9568 3452 9544 3416 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 285DEG 27KT 3442 9589