Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR A JAY...OKMULGEE...PURCELL LINE. BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST. A
LITTLE BREAK FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS...COUPLED WITH FALLING RH VALUES WILL STILL
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT BY LATE MORNING. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  66  98  72 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   99  73 101  73 /  20  20   0  10
MLC  100  70 103  71 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   96  60  99  65 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   96  63  96  66 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   91  65  93  68 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   98  68 103  70 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   94  64  99  69 /  10  10   0  10
F10  100  69 102  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW  101  74 102  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 25 MILES AN HOUR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES.

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
412.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT. THE
HEAT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

ARZ001-002-011-050515-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 1127 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GARFIELD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...BLAND...HILL TOP...GATEWAY...
LARUE...GARFIELD...EUREKA SPRINGS...CABANAL...BEAVER LAKE...BUSCH...
CLIFTY AND ROCKHOUSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3613 9361 3637 9407 3651 9397 3651 9390
      3632 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 301DEG 29KT 3641 9391

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

OKZ054>056-061-050530-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1146 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 1147 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF OCHELATA TO HOMINY...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...TALALA...HOMINY...AVANT...WOLCO...VERA...RAMONA
AND OCHELATA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3662 9543 3642 9588 3639 9652 3667 9586
      3667 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 265DEG 29KT 3663 9584 3643 9633

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ002-011-051045-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
459 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND EASTERN MADISON

AT 459 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARBLE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RED STAR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RED STAR...WEATHERS...OSAGE...
DRYFORK...DELMAR...RUDD...KINGSTON AND MARBLE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344
      3597 9345 3592 9350 3584 9352 3587 9368
      3621 9367 3623 9329 3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 276DEG 17KT 3617 9354 3591 9356