Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON
...AND HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 04Z. SEE
/OKCRFWTSA/ FOR DETAILS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIP INTO NE OK THIS
EVENING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TOMORROW AND WILL BE TAPERED OFF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EFFECTIVELY SHIFTS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BACK
WEST...KEEPING THE FA IN IMPROVED UPPER FLOW AND IN A THERMAL
PROFILE THAT WONT BE AS HOT. LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER RETURN NEAR
MIDWEEK AS A WAVE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY
AND NOT AS HOT TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  98  71 100 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   77  99  73 101 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   77  99  73 100 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   71  97  67  99 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   72  94  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   71  93  66  94 /  20  10  10   0
MKO   75  99  71 101 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  97  66  99 /  30  10  10   0
F10   75  99  72 101 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   75  98  74  99 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ010-
     ARZ019-ARZ029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ011-ARZ020.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
144 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
144 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...DANGEROUS HEAT AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...NIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE COMBINING WITH VERY DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS TO YIELD CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID WILDFIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH IN
MANY AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND
25 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES.

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 115 RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS
		HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT. THE
HEAT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW LOCAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND BE READY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE AND FAST
SPREADING FIRES. REMEMBER THAT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL CAUSE
TROUBLE AT FIRE SCENES AND THESE OUTFLOWS COULD SPREAD WELL AWAY
FROM THE GENERATING STORM. SO IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT FIRE COMMANDERS
STAY ABREAST OF STORMS AND THEIR BOUNDARIES. ALSO...A FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS AT
ONGOING FIRES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

OKZ057-042245-
CRAIG OK-
520 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG

AT 519 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CENTRAILIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID
CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...BOTH NEAR AND SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE STORMS. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3695 9500 3673 9501 3673 9542 3691 9542
      3699 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 262DEG 20KT 3684 9530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

OKZ056-061-042300-
NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-
529 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA AND NORTHERN ROGERS

AT 527 PM CDT...A SMALL BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
WATOVA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WATOVA AND NEW ALLUWE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BOTH
NEAR AND SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE STORM. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST
NOWATA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ROGERS COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3674 9543 3650 9544 3656 9570 3667 9571
      3675 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 250DEG 18KT 3663 9566