Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

August 1, 2012Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Aug 1, 2012, 4:42 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2012, 4:42 PM CDT (21:42 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2012, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 323 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -264 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1990 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 224 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 287 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 1, 3:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 3:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER CENTRAL
KS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT NAM 850MB TEMP DATA SHOWS THAT ALL-TIME RECORDS
COULD BE BROKEN ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE OK ASSUMING ALL
THINGS COME TOGETHER. MIXING DOWN 30C PLUS 850MB TEMPS YIELDS MAX
POTENTIAL OF 116 OR 117 DEGREES THURSDAY IN THE TULSA AREA...SO
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE ASSUMING CLOUDS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DON'T
AFFECT TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER OVER IN NW AR WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS PLAY A ROLE. HEAT HEADLINES
WILL CONTINUE ON AS IS. I LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THRU FRIDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AS WELL. A TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS. STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT MAY PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALONG WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN...AND MUCH COOLER
850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL EVEN DROP BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BY
SUNDAY.

THE COOLING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
THIS GO AROUND...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE RATHER THAN
CLOSE TO 110. WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET UNTIL THE FALL ARRIVES
(52 DAYS).

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85 113  85 108 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   79 105  78 102 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   78 108  79 106 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   72 111  76 110 /  10  10  20  10
FYV   73 101  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   75  99  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   77 109  79 106 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   75 103  76 104 /  20  20  20  20
F10   80 113  79 107 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   77 105  78 101 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ010-
     ARZ019-ARZ029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ011-ARZ020.

&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 1:07 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...HEATWAVE CONTINUES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
102 TO 114 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO ALL-TIME
RECORD HIGHS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY...OKCNPWTSA...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...AS
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE EXTREME HEAT OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CITY AND COUNTY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MORE HEAT RELATED
INCIDENTS AND THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 4:42 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
442 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ARZ002-012215-
CARROLL AR-
442 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 442 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OAK GROVE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLUE EYE...OAK GROVE...DENVER...GREEN FOREST...
CARROLLTON...COIN AND URBANETTE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3625 9330 3643 9361 3651 9356 3651 9331
      3650 9329 3625 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 300DEG 18KT 3647 9346

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 1, 4:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	45 min
Aug 1, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	55 min
Aug 1, 6:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	40 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.