Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NE OK TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z...WHERE
BRIEF LIFR VSBYS IN +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE GUSTS
TO 60 MPH. LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SE OK...NW AR...AND WC AR TAF
SITES WHERE VCTS OR A CB GROUP WILL BE USED THROUGH 02Z. BEYOND 02Z
...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DISSIPATES WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING UP ON
OK/KS BORDER PRESENTLY CONTINUES TO SHOW TENDENCY OF DEVELOPMENT
ON THE WESTERN FLANK AS THE WHOLE COMPLEX DIVES SOUTH. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AXIS
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY ORIENTED NEAR I-44. A LIMITED THREAT WILL
EXIST OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PRESENT
THROUGHOUT EASTERN OK. OTHER TERRAIN FORCED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
A PRE FIRST PERIOD WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS SOME OF NE OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 00Z BUT THERE IS A SHOT AT LEAST OF SOME MAKING IT INTO SE
OKLAHOMA AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD BE GONE AFTER 06Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
ALSO LEADS TO A MODEST BREAK DOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL
KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. BEYOND
THAT STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT BOOMING WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 75 THROUGH MID WEEK BUT BY
LATE NEXT WEEK HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...AND RECENT BIAS ADJUSTMENT
TO MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS WELL OVER 100 BY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SPARKED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS KANSAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW TO FOCUS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS IN PLA CEAWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT THAT TIME
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO MITIGATE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES.

A LIMITED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ONLY MODEST OFFSET OF THE FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
                        ...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE SOILS DRY OUT FROM
ANY RECENT RECENT RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.