Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP
AROUND THE REGION UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH
VCTS IN ALL TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AT ALL SITES BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN ALL
TAFS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. LESSER
DCAPE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED THAN YESTERDAY. THE
DEEPER MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. ALSO AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE POST FRONTAL AIR ALONG WITH AMPLE
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS THEREAFTER. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK. EXTENDED DATA CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. PENDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF
PRECIP CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX READINGS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH MID EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE BEFORE SUNSET WHEN THE HOT
CONDITIONS MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR EVEN WEAK STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH COMBINES WITH COOLER OUTFLOW AIR
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEDNESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ067-090030-
WAGONER OK-
705 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN WAGONER

AT 705 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
WAGONER...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3594 9528 3594 9551 3608 9543 3607 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 013DEG 6KT 3603 9537

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ053-090100-
CHOCTAW OK-
729 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CHOCTAW

AT 729 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KENT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOPER...KENT AND SPEER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3416 9579 3416 9553 3401 9554 3400 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 180DEG 4KT 3410 9565

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOST CITY               35.99N 95.14W
07/08/2012                   CHEROKEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHED TYPE BUILDING BLOWN OVER AND 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE
            UPROOTED. REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ057-063-090115-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-
745 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND NORTHERN DELAWARE

AT 746 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERNICE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...ZENA...CLEORA...BERNICE...
KETCHUM AND BERNICE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3651 9468 3635 9479 3650 9501 3651 9501
      3651 9503 3657 9512 3666 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 032DEG 7KT 3656 9488

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
804 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ058-090130-
OTTAWA OK-
804 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 804 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
QUAPAW...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER AND TWIN
BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3673 9469 3673 9500 3675 9500
      3701 9490 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 021DEG 11KT 3690 9479

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
808 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ063-090145-
DELAWARE OK-
808 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE

AT 808 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KANSAS...COLCORD...WEST
SILOAM SPRINGS...LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK AND NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3640 9460 3616 9457 3617 9485 3640 9475
      3641 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 005DEG 18KT 3632 9469