Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. LESSER
DCAPE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED THAN YESTERDAY. THE
DEEPER MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. ALSO AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE POST FRONTAL AIR ALONG WITH AMPLE
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS THEREAFTER. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK. EXTENDED DATA CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. PENDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF
PRECIP CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX READINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  93  71  94 /  40  40  20  10
FSM   74  93  72  94 /  60  60  40  20
MLC   70  91  71  92 /  40  50  40  20
BVO   72  90  69  93 /  50  40  20  10
FYV   69  90  68  91 /  60  50  30  10
BYV   71  89  68  89 /  50  50  30  10
MKO   72  92  69  95 /  40  50  30  10
MIO   73  90  69  92 /  50  40  20  10
F10   73  91  71  95 /  40  40  30  20
HHW   73  91  72  88 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH MID EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE BEFORE SUNSET WHEN THE HOT
CONDITIONS MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR EVEN WEAK STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH COMBINES WITH COOLER OUTFLOW AIR
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEDNESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ073-082215-
PITTSBURG OK-
440 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 440 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SCIPIO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SCIPIO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3507 9607 3509 9607 3512 9603 3513 9601
      3514 9602 3514 9596 3504 9588 3504 9610
      3505 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 000DEG 3KT 3511 9599

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ002-011-082230-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
454 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 455 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
ROCKHOUSE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...METALTON...CABANAL...RULE AND
ROCKHOUSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3619 9357 3628 9384 3643 9370 3643 9361
      3630 9366 3629 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 032DEG 9KT 3631 9366

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ029-OKZ076-082230-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
505 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN LE FLORE

AT 505 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HARTFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARTFORD AND MIDLAND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3493 9444 3505 9461 3519 9446 3506 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 048DEG 3KT 3506 9446

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ068-072-082230-
CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
507 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 507 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARBLE
CITY...BOX...COOKSON...LAKE TENKILLER STATE PARK AND CHEROKEE LANDING
STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3586 9481 3557 9481 3556 9513 3559 9513
      3584 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 011DEG 8KT 3577 9496

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

OKZ069-082245-
ADAIR OK-
519 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ADAIR

AT 519 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF
BARON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BARON...CHRISTIE AND
ADAIR STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3576 9450 3573 9481 3596 9479 3598 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 354DEG 7KT 3592 9466

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ001-OKZ063-082315-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
543 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN DELAWARE

AT 543 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MAYSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAYSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3637 9446 3637 9466 3650 9462 3650 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 000DEG 9KT 3647 9456