Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS DUE TO UNCERTAINLY ABOUT COVERAGE AND EXACT
LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT THEMSELVES ALIVE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS NECESSITATED INCREASING POPS IN THE FORECAST...
AS WELL AS SKY COVER. IN ADDITION... HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE... WITH ADDITIONAL
LOWERING WHERE THE BULK OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IFR VISIBILITIES COULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN DOES FALL AT A TAF SITE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD
DEAL OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKING PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET..ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH SOME RAINFALL TODAY... CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL CREATE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER. BURN BANS REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR A GROWING NUMBER OF COUNTIES.

AND DESPITE THE RAINFALL... HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA... ADDED HUMIDITY WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES HIGH AS WELL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RISK WILL PEAK DURING MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING AND WILL TAPER OFF INTO
THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED ALONG AND AROUND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES
NOT FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. BY TUESDAY THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE FRONT.
NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND RESULTS IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ019-020-071830-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
107 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN FRANKLIN

AT 107 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
PINEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PLEASANT HILL...PINEY...CONCORD...
MULBERRY...MOUNTAINBURG...ALMA...CEDARVILLE...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...
FURRY...DYER...RUDY...LOCKE AND LAKE FORT SMITH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3539 9428 3559 9440 3570 9408 3554 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 063DEG 10KT 3558 9413

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ019-071915-
CRAWFORD AR-
127 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

AT 128 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MOUNTAINBURG...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...MOUNTAINBURG...ALMA...
KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...RUDY AND LOCKE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3553 9405 3540 9426 3556 9436 3569 9406
      3566 9405 3566 9407 3558 9407 3557 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 064DEG 6KT 3558 9413

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
152 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ010-011-019-020-071930-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
152 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

AT 152 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WESLEY TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DELANEY TO FURRY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PINEY...CONCORD...
BIDVILLE...FERN...WESLEY...COMBS...PATRICK...DELANEY...CROSSES...
DURHAM...MOUNTAINBURG...VAN BUREN...ALMA...CHESTER...KIBLER...
SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE FIVE...RUDY...LOCKE...MOUNT GAYLER
AND LAKE FORT SMITH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3536 9425 3541 9434 3545 9438 3545 9442
      3547 9445 3548 9445 3569 9424 3588 9403
      3599 9403 3606 9385 3582 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 054DEG 15KT 3597 9395 3582 9394
          3547 9431

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ001-010-019-072015-
BENTON AR-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND WASHINGTON

AT 228 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON TO 2 MILES WEST OF TUTTLE TO CHESTER...MOVING
WEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...SILOAM SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...WINSLOW...PRAIRIE
GROVE...CINCINNATI...WEDINGTON...TONTITOWN...MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL
DAM...AND DEVILS DEN STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3566 9398 3566 9407 3562 9408 3564 9447
      3620 9457 3618 9404 3601 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 107DEG 6KT 3612 9416 3603 9402
          3569 9421