Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...AS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE HAS GIVEN WAY TO
STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA. A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SC
OK...AND MAY DRIFT INTO SE OK SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER. EITHER
WAY...DONT EXPECT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF EVENING POPS AS AREAL
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 100
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW HINTS
OF WEAK QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF SE OK AND
NW AR...HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE...THE RIDGE
DOESNT APPEAR COMPROMISED TO BITE ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS
TIME. AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST OR JUST BEYOND THE
SCOPE...MODELS HINT AT A MODEST WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE...WHICH
MAY GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS SE
OK AND NE AR. AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR PERSISTENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS. TEMPWISE...MAV/MEX HIGH TEMPS STILL APPEAR UNDERDONE...AND
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY PERSISTENCE WITH A HINT OF
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   74 100  73 101 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   71  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   70  99  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   67  96  68  98 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   71  95  70  98 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   69 100  71 101 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   71  99  72  99 /  10  10   0  10
F10   69  99  70  99 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   71  98  74  98 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK OVER AREAS WITH
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILD FIRES
THIS WEEK...INCLUDING INCREASINGLY HOT CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

OKZ060-064-022230-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
454 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 455 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TULSA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...TULSA AND JENKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3620 9581 3616 9581 3616 9577 3596 9594
      3607 9612 3616 9605 3616 9600 3623 9600
      3629 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 217DEG 9KT 3609 9596