Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
ARRIVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPLEX
REMAINS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO BUILD MUCH FARTHER WEST...IF ANY...DUE
TO MASSIVE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OK AS OKC
SOUNDING FROM 12Z INDICATES. THIS ALSO LIKELY TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUTSIDE OF MCS HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF SE
OKLAHOMA COULD GET QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SPS WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE TIME BEING. HAVE ALREADY SENT AN UPDATED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NW
ARKANSAS UNTIL 21Z...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO END PRIOR TO THEN HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE REGION
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT A COMPLEX WILL ORGANIZE
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW AR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH TEMPO TS AT THOSE LOCATIONS...VCTS ELSEWHERE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE NE OK SITES THIS
MORNING AS WELL. AFTER A BREIF BREAK THIS EVENING...STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AFT 06Z AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WAITING MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR A CONVECTIVE INDICATOR
TO VALIDATE MODEL FORECAST PRECIP FOR TODAY WITH THE
COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL CAP HAS BEEN WINNING THUS FAR.
SHORT TERM PORTION  OF THE FORECAST WEIGHTED HEAVILY
ON HR CUBED SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODEL.  LATEST HRRR
FAVORS CONVECTION FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY / ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE  BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE  MORE THUNDER TONIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40.

STALLED FRONT NEAR OR JUST  SOUTH OF FORECAST REGION
WILL START BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MINOR UPPER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN RATHER ZONAL FLOW.  THIS COMBO
MAINTAINS HEALTHY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAJOR TROUGH CARVES OUT SPACE WEST OF THE ROCKIES IN
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS PUMPS UP AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO GREAT
LAKES AND ENSURES MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR
EASTERN OK NORTHWEST AR. MARGINAL POPS DICTATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  67  85  67 /  20  30  10  40
FSM   92  72  88  68 /  70  50  30  30
MLC   93  70  87  68 /  20  50  30  50
BVO   88  63  84  63 /  20  20  10  30
FYV   86  64  85  62 /  80  30  10  10
BYV   87  65  83  60 /  90  30  10  10
MKO   90  67  86  66 /  20  40  20  40
MIO   88  64  84  63 /  50  20  10  10
F10   90  68  85  67 /  20  40  20  50
HHW   96  73  87  70 /  20  60  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1009 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1002 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS HIGHER FARTHER EAST.

A VERY STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR
EVEN EXCEED 100 DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER
TUESDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
RETREAT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SPREADING STORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORM CHANCES WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A LIMITED RISK DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

OKZ058-111530-
OTTAWA OK-
1003 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 1001 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...AND WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CARDIN TO 21 MILES EAST OF PEORIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE.
..OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER...TIFF CITY AND TWIN
BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WIND AT THE JOPLIN AIRPORT GUSTED TO 37 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3698 9461 3667 9461 3667 9499
      3700 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 011DEG 24KT 3698 9492 3689 9430

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

OKZ058-063-111600-
DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN DELAWARE AND OTTAWA

AT 1028 AM CDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF NARCISSA TO 5 MILES NORTH OF TIFF
CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...MIAMI...
COMMERCE...  AFTON.. .FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...
OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER...TIFF CITY...BERNICE
STATE PARK...TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
WINDS GUSTED TO 37 MPH NEAR MIAMI JUST AFTER 10 AM.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3652 9501 3660 9501 3660 9500
      3699 9499 3699 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 012DEG 24KT 3679 9501 3672 9461

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ001-002-111615-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-
1049 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHERN CARROLL

AT 1045 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORMS. THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHERN CARROLL
COUNTIES AROUND 11 AM.  WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

THE LEADING EDGY OF THE GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BLUE EYE...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BLUE EYE...
BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...PEA RIDGE...GATEWAY...BEL LA VISTA...
GARFIELD...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...BEAVER
LAKE...AND BEAVER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
BOATERS ON BEAVER LAKE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

LAT...LON 3634 9459 3651 9461 3649 9329 3629 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 005DEG 24KT 3658 9459 3653 9326