Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LOOKS LIKE STORMS CELLS COULD BE CROSSING THE
BORDER INTO OKLAHOMA AFTER O2Z. ESTIMATED WINDS UP TOWARDS 70 MPH
HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY ARE PUSHING THROUGH
KANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS...THOUGH A HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS. THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE DECREASING AS THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING
INTO MORE OF A BOW/MCS OVER THE PAST HOUR. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE
TO ADJUST POPS/WIND GUSTS/SKY GRIDS AS THE MCS AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  77  51  74 /  80  30   0   0
FSM   69  80  53  76 /  70  50  10   0
MLC   69  79  53  76 /  80  40  10  10
BVO   64  75  49  74 /  80  20   0  10
FYV   63  75  48  71 /  80  40  10   0
BYV   64  74  49  70 /  80  50  10   0
MKO   67  77  51  75 /  80  40  10   0
MIO   67  74  51  72 /  80  30  10   0
F10   67  77  52  74 /  80  40  10  10
HHW   70  82  56  79 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311345-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
837 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING TO
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH ALSO A HAIL THREAT INCLUDED. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD REMAIN NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO RETURN SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

OKZ056>058-310445-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-
1106 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG...NOWATA AND WESTERN OTTAWA

AT 1105 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF LENAPAH TO 7 MILES WEST OF DELAWARE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WANN...WATOVA...NEW
ALLUWE...AFTON...NARCISSA...VINITA...WHITE
OAK...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID
CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA...WELCH AND SOUTH COFFEYVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO
A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3672 9488 3659 9520 3661 9581 3688 9580
      3694 9581 3695 9579 3700 9578 3700 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 287DEG 31KT 3714 9538 3689 9547
          3676 9571