Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE INTO EASTERN OK. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER AREA NORTH OF I-40 WHILE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED MODEST DESTABILIZATION TO THE
SOUTH. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE
PROGRESS EAST...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE VERGE OF MOVING INTO SE
OKLAHOMA. TRUE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WHERE
TORNADIC STORMS HAVE IMPACTED DFW METROPLEX. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL MAKE A RUN AT FAR SE OKLAHOMA IN NEXT FEW HOURS LIKELY
MAINTAINING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS SE OK AND WEST
CENTRAL ARK THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT
EXTENDING TO ABOUT I-40. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS AS SFC
BASED STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STORMS WILL SWEEP NE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH. MODELS
STILL DIFFER A BIT ON DETAILS...BUT THE IDEA IS TO BRING THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD
POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS SHOULD GENERATE STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE HAIL PRODUCERS POSSIBLE IF ADEQUATE SFC HEATING
CAN TAKE PLACE. LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY
FRIDAY.

DRY LINE WILL SET UP AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST WITH AN
ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO FAR NE OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
INCREASING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL WITH A LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT UNTIL EARLY IN THE WEEK MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  73  52  71 /  70  30  30  10
FSM   63  80  53  73 /  80  20  30  10
MLC   59  76  51  73 /  80  20  20  10
BVO   56  73  49  69 /  70  30  30  10
FYV   59  75  48  67 /  80  30  30  20
BYV   61  76  51  66 /  80  40  40  30
MKO   59  74  51  70 /  90  20  30  10
MIO   60  74  51  67 /  80  30  40  20
F10   58  73  52  70 /  80  20  20  10
HHW   59  76  53  74 /  80  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

OKZ073-032145-
PITTSBURG OK-
401 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 401 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ASHLAND...
KIOWA...SAVANNA...HAYWOOD...INDIANOLA AND SCIPIO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3505 9610 3507 9607 3509 9607 3513 9601
      3515 9601 3514 9591 3517 9588 3519 9577
      3518 9575 3519 9574 3464 9588 3468 9589
      3468 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 208DEG 27KT 3466 9606